Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares have, so far, failed to rebound in 2025 following a big leg down in 2024.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) energy stock are in the green in afternoon trade today, up 0.3% at $24.57. But that's still a few cents below the closing price of $24.60 on 31 December. And it sees Woodside shares down 21.2% since this time last year.
Does that mean the ASX 200 oil and gas stock is now trading for a bargain?
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Are Woodside shares a good buy now?
Longer term, I believe investors will look back on today and see Woodside shares at current levels as bargain-priced, as I believe energy prices are more likely to rise long-term than fall.
And don't forget Woodside's strong dividend payout record. Over the past year, Woodside paid $1.937 a share in fully franked dividends. At today's share price, that sees the ASX 200 energy stock trading at a trailing dividend yield of 7.9%. With potential tax benefits from those franking credits.
As for the shorter-term outlook for Woodside shares, a lot of that will depend on where oil and gas prices head in 2025.
If US President Donald Trump is successful in helping to quell the conflicts in the Middle East, which is possible, and pushes through with his pro-drilling promise to bring down energy costs, which is likely, then oil prices could well slide in 2025.
After topping US$91 per barrel last April, Brent crude oil is currently fetching US$76 per barrel.
And according to the latest oil price forecast from Citi, Brent crude will trade between US$60 and US$65 per barrel in 2025 as supply growth exceeds demand growth. That forecast assumes that growing production from non-OPEC members, particularly the US, will outweigh any additional cuts from OPEC+ and the reduced oil expected from Iran amid new US sanctions.
If Citi has this right, Woodside shares could continue to face headwinds in 2025.
Major project approvals
Another key area to monitor if you're considering buying Woodside shares is the company's major project pipeline.
In 2024, Woodside achieved a record annual production of 194 million barrels of oil equivalent, with its Sangomar project producing 75 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.
For production to be sustainably growing and boost Woodside shares, the company needs to get its growth projects online and keep them on schedule.
On that front, as of 31 December, Woodside's Scarborough Energy project was 78% complete, while its Trion project was 20% complete. And Woodside is investing billions of dollars to expand its LNG footprint in the US.
Here in Australia, all eyes will be on the North West Shelf in Western Australia. That's where Woodside hopes to receive the green light from the federal government later this month for its $30 billion Browse offshore LNG project by the end of the month. The project is a joint venture with backing from Mitsui, Mitsubishi, BP, and PetroChina.
Western Australia's environment minister Reece Whitby approved Browse on the state level in December. This followed six years of court delays spurred by climate activists who feared It would fuel a new wave of greenhouse gas emissions.
On the other side of the argument, the massive energy project is supported by Aussie manufacturers and others demanding a future with reliable, low-cost energy.
While the outcome is uncertain, the Federal Government's approval later this month could boost Woodside shares, which the company owns a 30.6% stake in Browse.
According to the company's website, Browse presents "Australia's largest untapped conventional gas resource," with the potential to produce 11.4 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of LNG/LPG.
