Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) shares may be a popular option for investors, but most brokers agree that they are either overvalued or fully valued at current levels.
Instead, investors may want to consider buying a different ASX 200 mining stock.
Especially given how Bell Potter is forecasting this miner's shares to rise approximately 75% from current levels.
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Which ASX 200 mining stock?
The mining stock in question is mining and mining services company Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN).
According to a note out of Bell Potter this morning, its analysts have responded to the company's quarterly update by retaining their buy rating with a trimmed price target of $59.60 (from $61.00).
Based on its current share price of $33.89, this implies potential upside of 76% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on the ASX 200 mining stock's quarterly performance, the broker said:
Iron ore shipments at the Pilbara / Yilgarn Hubs were 3.5Mt vs BPe 3.4Mt. Iron Ore shipments from Onslow were 3.23Mt vs BPe 3.94Mt (December shipments were impacted by unplanned downtime with the port reclaimer). Iron ore pricing across all three hubs was US$84/t in line with BPe.
Total shipped lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6eq) was 122kt vs BPe 101kt, as all concentrate grades were higher than guidance. The average SC6eq lithium price across all three hubs was US$827/t vs BPe US$750/t.
One thing that disappointed, though, was its net debt. However, Bell Potter notes that this was due to currency headwinds. It adds:
MIN reported that net debt had risen to $5.1b vs BPe $4.8b, due to a $300m revaluation of USD denominated debt, following the decline in the AUD:USD exchange rate (from 66c to 62c). MIN has $700m cash and an undrawn $800m revolving credit facility.
Why is it a buy?
The broker believes that this ASX 200 mining stock is "an attractive investment" for the year ahead.
Especially given how there are a number of potential positive catalysts that could drive its shares higher. It explains:
Looking forward 12-months, we continue to view MIN as an attractive investment and maintain our buy recommendation. Positive catalysts for MIN include (1) the ramp-up of the Onslow Iron Project in CY25, (2) the deleveraging of MIN's balance sheet enabled by Onslow (MIN noted it expects to have reached peak leverage in 2Q), and (3) new leadership will inherit a strong set of assets and capabilities, an improved balance sheet, substantial growth optionality, and a stronger governance focus.
