Something rather interesting happened with DroneShield Ltd (ASX: DRO) stock over the past week or so.
Each week, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) releases short seller data that tells us which shares short sellers are holding in a short position.
Droneshield didn't make the cut of the top 10 most shorted ASX shares this week, as we documented this morning. However, there was still a big move with this defence stock earlier this month.
To illustrate, the report from 3 January revealed that 4.82% of Droneshield's outstanding stock was held in a short position at that time. But fast-forward just a few days to 6 January, and short interest in this company had expanded to 6.12%.
So why are short sellers seemingly targeting Droneshield stock this January?
Why is short-seller interest rising for Droneshield stock?
Well, there's only one reason why short sellers usually up their interest in any ASX stock: An increasing number believe that the stock in question is headed for a meaningful share price slump.
Remember, short selling can be thought of as the opposite process to investing 'long', which is just another way of saying 'buying shares as a long-term investment'. Rather than hoping that the shares they invest in go up over time, short sellers anticipate that their 'investments' will fall in value, preferably as soon as possible.
When a short seller 'shorts' a stock, they borrow the shares in question from another investor, with an agreement to return them at a certain time. The shorter then sells the shares immediately, only buying them back when it's time to return the stock. If that stock has fallen in value over the period in question, the shorter banks the difference as a profit. As such, it is in the shorters' interests to have their shares fall as much as possible.
That's what short sellers seem to be doing with Droneshield stock this month.
As to why? Well, it's not exactly clear, so we can only speculate.
Has Droneshield flown too close to the sun?
On the surface, this seems a rather strange trend. After all, this company revealed some good news to investors only last week: a new $9.7 million order from a "military end customer" in Latin America.
As we covered at the time, investors took this news well, with the Droneshield share price rising by more than 13% over the subsequent two trading days.
However, as of 8 January, this move put Droneshield stock up more than 9% over 2025 alone. As it stands today, Droneshield shares are still almost 102% higher than they were this time last year.
Check it out for yourself below:
With this in mind, perhaps the most plausible explanation for the increase in Droneshield shorters is that investors think this company's best days are now behind it, at least in the short term.
It's possible that short sellers are expecting investors to start taking some profits off the table, which would indeed put downward pressure on Droneshield shares.
Of course, this is all speculation. But we can take away that a rising number of investors are expecting rough times ahead for Droneshield stock in 2025. Let's see if they're right.
