GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) shares have been under pressure this week.
Investors have been selling the ASX All Ords stock after its latest funds under management (FUM) update fell short of expectations.
While this is disappointing for shareholders, it could have created a compelling buying opportunity for the rest of us according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
What is the broker saying about this ASX All Ords stock?
Goldman wasn't overly impressed with the fund manager's performance during December. Commenting on its FUM update, the broker said:
GQG printed a weak FUM update at Dec-24 of $153bn vs. VA consensus expectations of $164bn driven by weaker-than-expected flows and markets contribution resulting in earnings downgrades in outer years. We estimate that GQG underperformed benchmarks over the Dec-24 month.
Nevertheless, the broker believes that the company's shares are cheap at current levels compared to historical multiples. Especially given the prospect of new market entries driving stronger than expected medium term growth. It explains:
While GQG has seen some pressure recently on performance and slowing flows in Nov/Dec-24, we still think it offers valuation appeal. We await to see if a seasonally strong 1Q25 improves GQG's net flow profile. We have seen limited earnings impact from GQG's investment in Adani to date. Adani's share prices appear to have bounced back somewhat from initial weakness.
GQG trades at a ~9x 1-year forward P/E vs. its historical average of ~11x and recently as high as ~13-14x. Investment performance appears to be in line with benchmarks for the Dec-24 quarter but weaker over the Dec-24 month. Entry into Private Markets via PCS (Private Capital Solutions) also presents upside risk for growth over the medium term.
Time to buy
According to the note, Goldman Sachs has retained its buy rating on the ASX All Ords stock with an improved price target of $3.00 (from $2.80). It notes that its price target reflects lower profit expectations but the benefits of a stronger US dollar.
Based on its current share price of $2.00, this implies potential upside of 50% for investors over the next 12 months.
But the returns won't stop there. Goldman Sachs believes that the weaker Australian dollar and the recent share price weakness means that some huge dividend yields are on the way for investors in 2025 and beyond.
The broker is forecasting dividends per share of 13.6 US cents in FY 2025 and then 14.9 US cents in FY 2026. At current exchange rates, this equates to dividend yields of 11% and 12%, respectively.
This boosts the total potential 12-month return to over 60%.
