Sayona Mining Ltd (ASX: SYA) shares had a rough run in 2024, with the stock down more than 63% as we near the year's close.
Shares in the lithium miner currently fetch 2.6 cents, down more than 18% in the past month alone, reflecting broader challenges in the lithium sector.
As we look to 2025, many are asking if Sayona Mining shares can rebound. Let's see what the experts think.
A tough year for Sayona Mining shares
Sayona Mining shares have been hit hard this year, but the stock isn't alone in its pain. The lithium market has faced chronic oversupply issues, and weaker demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has put further pressure on prices.
According to Trading Economics, lithium is "set to record an over 20% slump on the year as high output levels are expected to maintain the prolonged supply surplus in the global market".
Sayona hasn't escaped the fallout, with its performance lagging behind other ASX lithium stocks.
We saw the full effects of this on the company's financials in its quarterly update in October.
According to The Motley Fool's James Mickelboro, Sayona sold lithium at a lower cost than it cost to produce, making a loss on each sale during the quarter.
It sold 77% more lithium at these lower prices than the prior quarter. Since its quarterly update in October, shares have sunk from 3.2 cents to their current levels.
Could 2025 bring a lithium rebound?
Despite a tough 2024, some analysts are pretty optimistic about the lithium market in 2025.
According to The Australian, Macquarie believes spodumene prices could climb by 17%, reflecting tighter supply and increased EV adoption.
Goldman Sachs also predicts strong long-term demand for lithium as battery prices fall, making EVs more affordable.
By 2026, Goldman expects average battery prices to drop to $80 per kilowatt-hour, potentially driving demand for lithium as well.
A rebound in lithium prices would provide much-needed support for Sayona Mining shares.
Macquarie has even rated Sayona a buy for 2025, citing its strategic role in the North American lithium supply chain.
The consensus of analyst estimates also rates Sayona a buy, according to CommSec
Sayona Mining shares takeout
The outlook for Sayona Mining shares in 2025 hinges on two factors: a lithium market recovery and the company's execution of its strategy.
Analysts are bullish on the stock, but one can't ignore the risks. So, in my view, Sayona Mining remains a speculative play tied to the fortunes of the broader lithium sector.
