It has been a year to forget for Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares.
Since the start of the year, the mining and mining services company's shares have lost almost 50% of their value.
This has been driven by a combination of commodity price weakness and a tax scandal involving its founder and CEO, Chris Ellison.
Will things be better in 2025? Let's see what could happen.
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Mineral Resources share price outlook for 2025
Given how much the company's shares have fallen this year, it may not come as a surprise to learn that many brokers believe that the only way is up from here.
One of those brokers is Bell Potter, which sees potential for Mineral Resources shares to deliver mouth-watering returns for investors over the next 12 months.
A recent note reveals that the broker has put a buy rating and $61.00 price target on its shares.
Based on its current share price of $36.86, this implies potential upside of 65% for investors between now and this time next year.
Commenting on its buy rating, the broker said:
Looking forward 12-months, we continue to view MIN as an attractive investment and maintain our buy recommendation. Positive catalysts for MIN include (1) the ramp-up of the Onslow Iron Project in 2025, (2) the deleveraging of MIN's balance sheet enabled by Onslow, and further capital release from the balance sheet, and (3) new leadership will inherit a strong set of assets and capabilities, an improved balance sheet, substantial growth optionality, and a stronger governance focus.
What else could impact its shares?
Given the company's exposure to the lithium market, it is likely that movements in the lithium price could have a big impact on the performance of Mineral Resources shares.
The good news is that Bell Potter recently spoke positively about lithium and revealed that it believes the market will tighten next year and then reach a deficit in 2026.
As we have seen in the past, if this happens it could put a rocket under lithium prices. It said:
We calculate that recent supply curtailments from Australian producers (including LTR) have deferred around 50kt of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent from the market (around 4% of 2024 supply). On our supply-demand modelling, the cuts result in a smaller market surplus in 2025 and brings forward our estimate of a market deficit to 2026 (previously 2027). Quarter to date SC6 prices have averaged around US$800/t CFR.
Time will tell if that's the case, but Mineral Resources shareholders will no doubt be hoping it is.
