This ASX share is tumbling 13% on reduced earnings forecast

Earnings are expected to fall in the first half, much to the dismay of the market.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Australian share market has hit another record high on Monday.

But the same cannot be said for the IPD Group Ltd (ASX: IPG) share price, which is having a disappointing start to the week.

In morning trade, the ASX share has crashed 13% to a 52-week low of $3.63.

Shot of a young businesswoman looking stressed out while working in an office.

Image source: Getty Images

Why are investors selling this ASX share?

The shares of this electrical solutions provider in energy management and automation have been sold off today after it released softer than expected earnings guidance.

According to the release, based on unaudited results for the four months ended October 2024, and management forecasts for November and December, the ASX share expects the following:

  • First half revenue to exceed the prior corresponding period
  • First half EBITDA of $22.5 million to $23.1 million
  • First half EBIT of $19.2 million to $19.8 million
  • Order Backlog up 50% to $93.1 million

As a comparison, pro forma EBITDA was $24.8 million and pro forma EBIT was $21.4 million in the prior corresponding period.

It is also worth noting that Bell Potter was forecasting EBITDA of $53.5 million for the full year, representing annual growth of 33%. IPD Group clearly has an uphill battle to deliver on this over the 12 months.

What's going on?

The ASX share's CEO, Michael Sainsbury, was pleased with the company's revenue growth in a "challenging environment."

However, he acknowledges that it would have been much stronger had it not been for longer lead times. Combined with investments in its operating cost base, this has weighed on its earnings. The CEO explains:

We are pleased to remain on track to deliver another half of revenue growth in a challenging environment. Amidst the wider macroeconomic challenges in the commercial construction sector, we have seen our order book transition from daily trade to larger and more complex orders, which typically have longer lead times and less certainty around delivery timing. This has resulted in a proportion of orders that would previously have already become invoiced Revenue now sitting in our Order Backlog.

We have made additional investments into our operating cost base to generate and deliver these additional orders, which will impact margins for 1HFY25. Our operating cost base however is well placed to service future growth. We remain excited by IPD's ongoing evolution and the continued improvements to our overall value proposition and look forward to providing more details around today's update at the Company's AGM on Tuesday, 26 November 2024.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Ipd Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Ipd Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Industrials Shares

A female soldier flies a drone using hand-held controls.
Industrials Shares

Why are DroneShield shares trading higher today?

The anti-drone company continues to expand its footprint.

Read more »

A construction worker sits pensively at his desk with his arm propping up his chin as he looks at his laptop computer.
Industrials Shares

This ASX contractor just landed a PNG deal. So why is the share price falling?

Duratec wins PNG deal as the share price dips.

Read more »

Rising ASX uranium share price icon on a stock index board.
Industrials Shares

ASX 200 uranium stock lifts off on $143 million US laser news

Investors are piling into this ASX uranium stock today. Let’s see why.

Read more »

Man sitting in a plane looking through a window and working on a laptop.
Industrials Shares

Qantas shares extend losses as fuel costs reshape operations

Qantas shares drop as fuel costs reshape airline operations.

Read more »

Military engineer works on drone.
Industrials Shares

Droneshield shares rocket 20% higher: What has happened?

The counter drone technology's share price has been very volatile recently.

Read more »

Happy aeroplane passenger using his phone and listening to music.
Industrials Shares

This beaten-down ASX stock just jumped nearly 20%. Here's why it's suddenly flying

Alliance shares jump as company addresses fuel cost concerns.

Read more »

Three builders analyse their blueprints on site.
Industrials Shares

After more than doubling over the past year one broker sees more upside for this ASX small-cap stock

A solid pipeline has this builder set up for a strong second half.

Read more »

A silhouette of a soldier flying a drone at sunset.
Technology Shares

Why are these 2 defence stocks tumbling today?

Two ASX defence stocks are falling despite no new announcements.

Read more »