The AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) share price has soared in 2024 to date — at $1.52, it's up more than 60%! Not bad for a company that's supposedly long past its best times. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has only risen by 8.5% so far this year.
However, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance, particularly when it comes to a volatile ASX financial share like AMP. A recovery of the share price and price/earnings (P/E) ratio is one thing. Ongoing success could require more.
How likely is more success in 2025? One expert has given their view on whether the AMP share price is an attractive investment opportunity or not.
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It could depend on one factor
Writing on The Bull, Tony Paterno from Ord Minnett said that AMP's earnings during the 2025 calendar year were "likely to be tied to market movements, so investors should be somewhat cautious on nominal assets and cash flows".
He currently rates the business as a hold.
However, he did note that assets under management (AUM) across platforms, and superannuation and investment businesses rose in the third quarter of FY24 compared to the prior quarter.
Paterno described the latest quarterly update as "positive", with its businesses stabilising.
A quarter of growth
In that update, AMP said its platforms' net cash flows amounted to $750 million, up 76% on the third quarter of 2023. North inflows from independent financial advisers (IFA) increased 47% year over year to $832 million.
AMP also reported that in that quarter, its platforms' AUM increased to $78.1 billion, up from $74.7 billion in the second quarter of 2024.
The superannuation and investments AUM increased to $55.8 billion, up from $54 billion in the 2024 second quarter.
Its New Zealand wealth management segment experienced net cash flows of $40 million, up from $6 million in the third quarter of 2023. AUM for this segment rose to $11.6 billion, up from $11.2 billion in the second quarter of 2024.
AMP Bank also experienced pleasing growth over the quarter. Its total loan book increased to $23 billion, up from $22.9 billion in the second quarter of FY24. AMP Bank's total deposits grew to $20.9 billion in September 2024, up from $20.6 billion in June 2024.
AMP's leadership is working on the launch of its digital bank for the first quarter of FY25, with a release to AMP employees first. In its existing bank, it is "carefully" managing its margins through restrained loan growth because of the competitive environment.
AMP share price snapshot
Since 17 November 2024, AMP shares have climbed more than 70%. According to the expert from Ord Minnett, time will tell if the ASX financial share can keep rising, which could depend on market movements.
