ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a convenient way for Australians to invest in international shares via our local exchange.
With the United States election upon us, many ASX investors are wondering what a Harris or Trump victory will mean for the global economy, share markets, and their own investments.
Betashares Senior Investment Strategist Cameron Gleeson has shared his ideas about which ASX ETFs may benefit if US Vice-President Kamala Harris wins this week's election.
In an article, Gleeson discusses how Harris' policies may impact the global economy and markets.
(Keep in mind that the impact will also depend on whether the Democrats gain control of Congress.)
Let's take a look.
Harris' key policies in this election
Here is Gleeson's summary of Kamala Harris' key policies that matter the most.
Taxes and spending
- Raise corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%
- Increase taxes on buybacks and companies' foreign income
- Extend 2017 personal tax cuts for households earning under $400,000
- New taxes for billionaires and very high-income earners
- Fiscal assistance for small businesses, housing, healthcare, and parents
- Maintain US aid to Ukraine
Trade and Tariffs
- Continue Biden's support for US semiconductor and clean energy manufacturing
- Continue Biden's approach to strategic use of tariffs and trade embargos
Immigration, Energy, and the Federal Reserve
- An increased focus on border control, with a conditional increase in new immigrant visas
- Prioritisation of clean energy industry investment and support
- Maintain Federal Reserve independence
ASX ETFs that may benefit from a Harris Presidency: expert
Betashares Asia Technology Tigers ETF (ASX: ASIA)
Gleeson says the ASX ETF ASIA could benefit from a potential relief rally in Asia:
East Asia is one of the most trade exposed regions in the world, and is home to some of the world's leading high tech manufacturing and semiconductor supply chain companies, including Samsung and TSMC, which are both currently held in ASIA.
Betashares Energy Transition Metals ETF (ASX: XMET)
Gleeson says the ASX ETF XMET may benefit from Harris' plans to expand the supply of critical minerals for the green energy transition:
Harris has promised to establish of a national reserve of critical minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel to advance the US's aspirations in clean energy, EVs and battery tech.
Betashares Global Defence ETF (ASX: ARMR)
Gleeson says the ASX ETF ARMR may benefit from ongoing or increased defence spending:
Harris promises continued support for Ukraine and more multilateralism, while still maintaining a hard line against China.
Foolish takeaway
Gleeson advises that any potential upside to these ETFs may be limited to a short post-election bump.
"In the longer term, markets are more beholden to macro-economic fundamentals than politics," he says.
Here at The Motley Fool, our analysts recommend not trying to time the market. Our team advocates taking a long-term view and using fundamental analysis to choose which ASX ETFs or shares to invest in.
