Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares will be watched very closely next week.
That's because on Monday 4 November, the banking giant will kick off earnings season for the big four banks.
Ahead of next week's release, let's take a look at what the market is expecting from Australia's oldest bank.
Westpac full year results preview
According to a recent note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting Westpac to report net interest income of $18,834 million.
This will be a 2.7% increase year on year, driven by higher average interest earning assets and offset slightly by its expectation that Westpac's net interest margin (NIM) will contract from 1.95% to 1.94% in FY 2024.
Total operating revenue is expected to be marginally higher at $21,765 million for the 12 months. But due to higher expenses, pre-provisioning (normalised) operating profit is forecast to be down 1.4% year on year to $10.837 million.
Goldman believes that this will ultimately lead to cash earnings falling 1.9% in FY 2024 to $7,083 million.
However, despite this profit decline, the broker is forecasting a dividend increase in FY 2024. It has pencilled in total dividends of $1.80 per share, which will be up 27% on the $1.42 per share it paid in FY 2023.
This estimate is inclusive of a 15 cents per share special dividend that was declared with its first half results earlier this year and another expected with its full year results.
Goldman also notes that it doesn't expect the special dividends to stop there. It recently said:
While the 3Q24 CET1 ratio was below what was implied by our prior forecasts, the A$500 mn reduction in APRA's operational risk capital overlay, and APRA's approval of WBC's new IRRBB model effective Aug-24, means WBC's pro-forma capital position is better than our prior expectations, and we therefore add a 15¢ special dividend in 2H24E and 1H25E.
Should you invest?
Goldman Sachs had a sell rating and $25.84 price target on Westpac's shares prior to its analyst leaving the company. But we can't rely on that rating any more, so let's look elsewhere.
UBS currently has a neutral rating and $33.00 price target and Morgans has a hold rating and $27.04 price target.
Given that Westpac's shares are trading at $32.45 at the time of writing, it is fair to say that there's not a lot of value left on the table for investors now. Though, a strong result next week could change that and have analysts updating their recommendations.
