All eyes will be on Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares next week.
That's because on Wednesday 30 October the lithium miner will be releasing its eagerly anticipated first quarter update.
Ahead of next week's release, let's take a look and see what the market is expecting from the lithium giant.
Pilbara Minerals first quarter preview
According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are expecting the company's production to fall quarter on quarter.
The broker has pencilled in spodumene production of 208kt for the three months, down 8% from 226kt for the fourth quarter of FY 2024. However, Goldman's estimate is comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate for a decline to 188kt.
This is expected to lead to spodumene sales of 213kt for the quarter according to Goldman. This is down 9% on the previous quarter but is ahead of the consensus estimate of 190kt.
Another big item that investors will be watching out for very carefully is the realised spodumene price. Given that falling lithium prices have been weighing heavily on Pilbara Minerals' shares, shareholders will no doubt be hoping for some good news here.
Unfortunately, both Goldman Sachs and the market don't expect the company to report an improvement in its realised spodumene price. Goldman has pencilled in a price of US$730 per tonne, down 13% from US$840 per tonne in the June quarter. The consensus estimate implies a smaller decline to US$801 per tonne.
Another disappointment could come from the company's cash costs. Goldman is forecasting a 16% increase quarter on quarter to A$686 per tonne. This is a touch under the consensus estimate of A$699 per tonne.
All in all, next week's update may be a hard read for shareholders. Though, one consolation is that much of this is already priced into its share price.
Should you buy Pilbara Minerals shares?
Goldman doesn't currently have a rating on Pilbara Minerals' shares. This may be due to the broker being involved with its proposed acquisition of Latin Resources (ASX: LRS).
Elsewhere, opinion remains incredibly divided on whether this lithium giant is a buy, hold, or sell.
For example, Bell Potter currently has a hold rating and $3.00 price target, UBS has a sell rating and $2.00 price target, and Morgans has an add rating and $3.30 price target.
At best, there's a potential gain of 20% on the cards over the next 12 months. At worst, a decline of approximately 28% could be on the way.
