Buy this ASX 200 gold stock for a 15% return

Goldman Sachs thinks this miner can deliver golden returns.

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A woman in a business suit sits at her desk with gold bars in each hand while she kisses one bar with her eyes closed. Her desk has another three gold bars stacked in front of her. symbolising the rising Northern Star share price

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The gold price has been on fire this year and has broken records multiple times.

This is great news for ASX 200 gold stocks, as every time the precious metal's price increases it lifts their margins.

Unsurprisingly, the rising gold price has boosted many gold stocks along the way, with plenty now trading at 52-week highs.

But that doesn't mean that there aren't shares out there that could still deliver market-beating returns. In fact, just this morning the team at Goldman Sachs retained its buy rating on a gold miner.

Which ASX 200 gold stock is rated as a buy?

The gold miner in question is Bellevue Gold Ltd (ASX: BGL).

It is the owner of the Bellevue Gold Mine in Western Australia, which commenced commercial production in May.

Since then, it has announced a five-year growth plan under which production is forecast to increase to 250,000 ounces a year by FY 2028. It also expects to reduce its all-in sustaining cost (AISC) profile to a lowly A$1,500 per ounce to A$1,600 per ounce in FY 2029.

On Monday, the ASX 200 gold stock released its quarterly update, which went down well with analysts at Goldman Sachs. The broker said:

BGL reported gold production of ~36koz in line with GSe/VA Consensus, with mill throughput offsetting softer grade (though performed in line with the resource model and 5 year growth plan), with AISC of ~A$2,070/oz (produced; A$1,892/oz on sold basis) also being in line on broadly in line cost components (GSe ~A$130/t mining and ~A$70/t processing costs for FY25E).

The broker was also pleased to see that Bellevue Gold's guidance remains in line with expectations. It adds:

FY25 production guidance is unchanged at 165koz-180koz with AISC of A$1,750-1,850/oz (GSe/consensus ~170koz and ~A$1,900/oz), with BGL continuing to expect this to be back ended at a ~200kozpa run rate by 4Q FY25 (GSe below). Beyond FY25, BGL reiterated their 5 year growth plan, with an accelerated expansion to 1.6Mtpa processing capacity driving gold production to ~250kozpa from FY28E and lowering AISC to ~A$1,500-1,600/oz (GSe largely top end).

Good returns

In response to the above, the broker has reaffirmed its buy rating and $1.80 price target on the ASX 200 gold stock. Based on its current share price of $1.56, this implies potential upside of 15.4% for investors over the next 12 months.

Overall, this could make it a good option if you are looking for ways to gain exposure to the sky-high gold price.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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