Why are CBA shares sliding following the bank's quarterly update?

ASX 200 investors are bidding down CBA shares on Thursday. But why?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are in the red today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed yesterday trading for $119.74. In early afternoon trade on Thursday, shares are swapping hands for $117.59, down 1.8%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.9% at this same time.

This comes following the release of CBA's quarterly update for the three months ending 31 March.

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price

Image source: Getty Images

What did the big four bank report?

Among the key financial metrics for the quarter, the bank reported a 1% year on year decrease in operating income. That dip came along with a 2% increase in operating expenses.

Combined, this saw CommBank's unaudited statutory net profit after tax fall 5% from the prior corresponding quarter to $2.4 billion, which could explain why CBA shares are underperforming today.

From a risk perspective, the bank remains well capitalised with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.9%. That's well above the minimal 10.25% ratio required by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).

Why are CBA shares under pressure today?

CBA shares are sliding today despite what Citi called a "positive result" for the quarter, citing the improvement of net interest margins (NIM).

According to Citi analyst Brendan Sproules (quoted by The Australian), "The stabilisation and likely modest improvement in the NIM reflects, in our view, the stabilisation in retail banking, augmented by better channel mix in mortgages."

Sproules added, "We expect the market to receive the result well from a fundamental perspective, although the valuation still remains very challenging from our perspective."

Indeed, it's the often-cited overvaluation of CBA shares relative to its peers that has a number of brokers forecasting price targets well below current levels.

With the bank's $2.4 billion quarterly profit modestly exceeding consensus expectations, Evans & Partners expects we may see analysts boost their profit forecasts.

"We expect consensus core profit upgrades of ~2 per cent for FY25F and FY26F. Asset quality is deteriorating in similar fashion to that generally seen in other major bank results over the last week," the broker said (quoted by The Australian Financial Review).

Despite that expectation, Evans & Partners has a 'sell' rating on CBA shares with an $80 price target.

UBS also has a 'sell' rating on the biggest Australian bank, though with a higher price target of $105 a share.

According to UBS (quoted by the AFR):

Despite a visible deterioration in asset quality metrics, we think the credit impairment charges today suggest some consensus upgrades are likely for 2H 24 cash earnings…

CBA continues to lean on its proprietary distribution channels to defend and drive volume growth in mortgages – a strategy which has so far seen CBA grow at 0.7x system. Defending back-book profitability remains a key imperative for management.

Despite today's retrace, CBA shares remain up a healthy 21% since this time last year.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

View of a business man's hand passing a $100 note to another with a bank in the background.
Bank Shares

Where to invest your Westpac dividends

Australia's oldest bank is paying its latest dividend today.

Read more »

Frustrated and shocked businesswoman reading bad news online from phone.
Bank Shares

What on earth's going on with Judo Capital shares?

The ASX lender shares keep plunging. Here's what's driving the sell-off.

Read more »

Happy couple at Bank ATM machine.
Bank Shares

Should I buy NAB shares for passive income?

A $10,000 investment in this ASX bank share could generate about $454 of forecast FY26 dividend income.

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Bank Shares

Which ASX 200 bank stock is crashing 46% on profit guidance downgrade?

What did this bank stock announce today?

Read more »

Happy young woman saving money in a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

Is the Westpac share price a buy for its 6% dividend yield?

Is the ASX bank share’s valuation and passive income attractive?

Read more »

View from below of a banker jumping for joy in the CBD surrounded by high-rise office buildings.
Bank Shares

Westpac shares climb as bank makes a big tech move

Westpac’s latest tech move is giving shareholders something to like.

Read more »

Red sell button on an Apple keyboard.
Broker Notes

Sell alert! Why this expert is calling time on Westpac shares

A top analyst forecasts growing headwinds for Westpac shares. But why?

Read more »

Man and woman looking surprised and shocked.
Bank Shares

Should I sell my CBA shares before the end of June?

Do you own the banking giant's shares? Read this.

Read more »