Does this ASX 300 retail stock really have a 7.6% dividend yield right now?

Is a 7.67% dividend yield too good to be true?

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ASX 300 retail stocks often sport large dividend yields. We've seen it before with JB Hi-Fi Ltd (ASX: JBH) and Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (ASX: HVN). With Adairs Ltd (ASX: ADH) and Dusk Group Ltd (ASX: DSK) as well.

But a fully-franked dividend yield of 7.67% is, objectively, unusually high. And yet one ASX 300 retail stock is apparently offering that today. That retailer would be footwear purveyor Accent Group Ltd (ASX: AX1).

Yes, one glance at the Accent share price today, and that dividend yield metric of 7.67% will probably jump right out at you.

But is a dividend yield on this ASX 300 retail stock for real? Can you really expect to receive $764 in annual dividend income every year with a $10,000 investment in Accent shares?

Well, the 7.67% dividend yield metric is real alright. It derives from Accent's last two dividend payments. The first was last year's final dividend of 5.5 cents per share, paid out in September. The second was this March's interim dividend of 8.5 cents per share.

Both payments came with full franking credits attached, meaning that 7.67% yield grosses up to a whopping 10.96% with the value of those franking credits included.

Is this ASX 300 retail stock's 7.6% dividend yield for real?

However, this dividend yield is only a trailing yield. That means it reflects what investors have enjoyed in the past, not what they will receive in the future. No company is ever under any obligation to maintain, or increase its dividends year on year. Or to pay a dividend at all, for that matter.

Indeed, one of those past two dividend payments actually represents a year-on-year drop to what investors received in the prior years.

Accent's final dividend of 2022 came in at 4 cents per share, but 2023's interim dividend was worth a massive 12 cents per share.

So we can't know for sure what dividends Accent will pay over the coming 12 months until the ASX 300 retail stock tips its hand.

But we can look at what an ASX expert is predicting.

Over FY2024, Accent has paid a total of 14 cents per share in dividends. But as my Fool colleague James covered earlier this month, ASX broker Bell Potter reckons investors are in for a treat going forward.

Bell Potter has pencilled in total dividends worth 14.6 cents per share over the 2025 financial year, and an even higher 16.4 cents per share over FY2026. No wonder the broker has a buy rating on Accent shares right now, alongside a 12-month share price target of $2.50.

If Bell Potter is on the money here, it would mean that Accent shares would have a forward dividend yield of 8.02% for FY2025 and 9.01% for FY2026.

But, as always, only time will tell if these predictions prove prescient.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has positions in Adairs. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Adairs. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Adairs and Harvey Norman. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Accent Group and Jb Hi-Fi. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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