Like most ASX 200 bank stocks, National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares have been a very pleasing investment to have owned in recent months.
Despite being down a hefty 1.5% today to $33.42 a share, NAB stock remains up a happy 8.3% over 2024 to date. The bank also remains up an even better 16.57% over the past 12 months. Combining these share price returns with NAB's healthy trailing dividend yield of 5% (which comes fully franked of course), and we are staring at some fairly lucrative returns for NAB shareholders.
Bear in mind that NAB shares are also down around 5% from their most recent 52-week high. Back in early March, NAB hit $35.12 a share, so these returns looked even better back then. And investors who were lucky enough to pick up NAB shares back in June last year at the bank's last 52-week low of just over $25 a share would be looking at a return of over 32% right now.
These returns are similar to what investors in the other big four banks like Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) have enjoyed over these periods.
So we've established that NAB has been a great stock to have owned in recent months. But that doesn't necessarily mean that this ASX 200 bank will continue to be a great investment going forward.
In fact, one ASX expert is warning investors that it won't be.
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ASX expert: Sell NAB shares now
As reported by The Bull, Harrison Massey of investment house Argonaut has named NAB as a sell. Massey cites valuation concerns for his bearish view. Here's what he told investors in full:
The bank has enjoyed a strong start in calendar year 2024, with the share price rising from $30.86 on January 2 to trade at $34.30 on April 11. In our view, the stock was recently trading on peak multiples. Also, in our opinion, there appears to be a lack of catalysts to move the share price higher in the short term. It may be worth considering taking some profits at these levels.
Massey isn't the only ASX expert warning investors of ASX 200 banks like NAB right now either. Last month, we covered the bearish views of Wilsons equity strategist Rob Crookston.
Crookston stated that "valuation multiples have risen significantly, and are now stretched relative to historical norms" for all four of the major ASX banks. He concluded by calling current bank share prices "excessive".
So not a great review of NAB shares at their current valuation by these two ASX experts. Let's see if their pessimistic outlook is vindicated by the share market over the coming 12 months and beyond.
At the current NAB share price, this ASX 200 bank has a trailing dividend yield of 5.01%.
