Here's the BHP dividend forecast through to 2026

This miner is committed to paying appealing dividends.

| More on:
two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) dividend has rewarded investors for many years, but can the mining giant maintain and increase its payouts over the next few?

BHP is one of the world's largest diversified miners and Australia's biggest ASX-listed company, with a market capitalisation of $224.5 billion. A significant dividend payer in Australia, not necessarily in dividend yield terms, BHP returns billions of dollars to shareholders in dividends each year.

The miner has decided on a minimum 50% dividend payout ratio, which means it typically pays a fairly generous amount.

But, it's not a business that can rely on growing profit year after year. Let's have a look at how big the dividend payouts could be in the next few years.

BHP dividend forecast for 2024

BHP recently reported its FY24 first-half result, which included a dividend payout ratio of 56%. Its dividend was US 72 cents per share. This represented a double-digit cut in percentage terms, though it still meant a payout of US$3.6 billion.

The reduced payout came after profit from operations was down 56% to US$4.8 billion, with weakness in nickel and Samarco.

But this is just half of what the 2024 annual payout will be, with the final dividend payout for FY24 landing in September.

The forecast on Commsec suggests the business could pay an annual dividend per share of A$2.40, which would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.7%.

Forecast for 2025

The further into the future forecasts go, the broader the range of potential outcomes, particularly with mining shares affected by the changing price of commodities. The iron ore price, for example, could be stronger or much weaker than it is right now.

On Commsec, the prediction is that BHP's profit and dividend could be a bit lower than FY24. The miner is forecast to pay an annual dividend per share of A$2.21 in FY25. This would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 7.1%.

And for 2026?

The Commsec projection expects BHP profit and dividends to decrease again by a small amount in FY26.  

The company is forecast to pay an annual dividend per share of A$2.15 in the 2026 financial year. This would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 6.9%.

Foolish takeaway

BHP is expected to keep paying a solid dividend for the foreseeable future, but forecasts can change as quickly as commodity prices, so we'll have to see how much the future aligns with those predictions.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Broker Notes

ASX expert: Buy Lynas shares now

Top broker Goldman Sachs has this ASX rare earths share on its conviction list.

Read more »

Kid stacking coins from the jar.
Resources Shares

1 ASX penny stock I'd buy in April while it is still only 21 cents

Up 135% since February, I think this ASX penny stock has a lot more gains ahead.

Read more »

A boy is about to rocket from a copper-coloured field of hay into the sky.
Resources Shares

2 ASX copper stocks to buy now for this 'explosive price upside'

I think both ASX copper stocks could continue to deliver outsized gains in 2024.

Read more »

Smiling mine worker at mining site with colleagues.
Resources Shares

How BHP stock could unseat the world's top copper producer

With copper prices surging in 2024, BHP’s portfolio of copper mines are in the spotlight.

Read more »

Image of young successful engineer, with blueprints, notepad and digital tablet, observing the project implementation on construction site and in mine.
Resources Shares

These ASX 300 mining stocks could rise 25% to 50%

Analysts think these mining stocks could deliver big returns for investors.

Read more »

Happy man in high vis vest and hard hat holds his arms up with fists clenched celebrating the rising Fortescue share price
Resources Shares

2 ASX mining stocks smashing the market on Tuesday

Shareholders of these mining shares will be smiling today.

Read more »

Miner and company person analysing results of a mining company.
Resources Shares

Why top brokers say Rio Tinto stock is a better buy than BHP

The Rio Tinto share price could soar 20% over the coming year, outpacing BHP's share price gains.

Read more »

two men in hard hats and high visibility jackets look together at a laptop screen that one of the men in holding at a mine site.
Resources Shares

The BHP share price is down 12% in 2024. What's next for the iron ore price?

BHP shares have struggled in 2024 amid sliding iron ore prices. Will the pain persist?

Read more »