2023 was a volatile year for the CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) share price.
Investors who bought the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) healthcare stock at the close of 2022 could have picked up shares for $287.76 apiece.
Slightly less than halfway through 2023, on 13 June, CSL finished the day trading for $308.52. That's a gain of 7.3%.
But things went south from there, with the CSL share price tumbling to $230.65 by market close on 30 October.
And then… it was up again, with the healthcare stock finishing 2023 trading for $286.65 a share.
That left the stock down 0.4% for the calendar year. Not including the dividends.
Over the course of the year, eligible investors also will have received $3.63 in partly franked dividends. If we add those back in, the accumulated value of CSL shares gained 0.8%.
Still, that's significantly less than the 9.3% gains posted by the ASX 200 in 2023. Gains which rise to some 13.9% if we add in the dividends delivered by income-paying stocks.
So, what went right and what went wrong during 2023?
What moved the CSL share price in 2023?
Things were ticking along well for CSL shareholders until the company provided a sobering market update on 14 June.
The gist of that update concerned a reduced profit forecast after sharper-than-expected foreign currency headwinds. CSL's prior forecast, delivered during its half-year results presentation, expected a foreign currency impact of US$175 million. On 14 June, the company raised those expectations to the range of US$230 million to US$250 million.
And with the company's FY 2024 profit guidance of US$2.9 billion to US$3 billion, at constant currency, coming in below consensus expectations, the CSL share price tumbled 6.9% on the day and 2.7% the following trading day.
But, as mentioned up top, things took a turn for the better after shares hit their 2023 lows on 30 October, gaining 24% by year's end.
That lift looks to have come from two fronts.
First, numerous brokers reported they believed the company was undervalued at current prices, expecting CSL to deliver higher profit margins in the year ahead.
Second, CSL held its capital markets day presentation in October, where the company's exploration of generative AI to enhance its operations may have stoked investor interest.
Management also highlighted that the company counts as the world's biggest in the $38 billion plasma protein therapies industry), and the second biggest in the $7 billion flu vaccines industry.
The CSL share price could have gotten some additional tailwinds in the last two months of 2023, with the company forecasting annual double-digit earnings growth.
