Soaring Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) dividend payouts over the last two years have attracted the interest of passive income investors.
With profits rising amid higher oil and gas prices, so too have the Woodside dividends.
The past 12 months saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) oil and gas stock pay an all-time high final dividend of $2.154 per share, which hit eligible shareholders' bank accounts on 5 April. The interim Woodside dividend of $1.243 per share was paid on 28 September.
That equates to a (rounded) $3.40 per share in fully franked dividends over the year.
At the current Woodside share price of $30.85, this works out to a juicy trailing yield of 11%.
That means a $10,000 investment today could return $1,100 a year in passive income. With potential tax benefits from those franking credits.
Of course, much of next year's Woodside dividend payout hinges on the oil price.
Which brings us to our headline question, did OPEC+ just throw a spanner in the works?
Is the Woodside dividend at risk from squabbling at OPEC+?
Yesterday (overnight Aussie time) the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) held their delayed and much anticipated virtual meeting to determine the cartel's production levels for the first quarter of 2024.
But things didn't go exactly to plan.
Squabbling among some of the members saw the Brent crude oil price slide 2.2% overnight to US$82.82 per barrel. That's down 14% since 27 September, when that same barrel was worth US$96.55. And barring a turnaround, that could dent the Woodside dividend in the year ahead.
While Saudi Arabia and some of the wealthier members appeared eager to extend and even increase existing production cuts, some of the poorer nations were not as keen.
Saudi Arabia extended its own one million barrel per day production cuts through Q1 2024. And other members, including Russia and the UAE, agreed to slash a combined 900,000 barrels per day from their output.
But Angola may have helped crimp the outlook for the Woodside dividend after its spokesman said the country would not be cutting 200,000 barrels per day from its production, as OPEC+ had instructed.
According to Angola's OPEC governor Estevao Pedro:
We will produce above the quota determined by OPEC. It is not a matter of disobeying OPEC. We presented our position, and OPEC should take it into consideration.
The wording of the new agreement also appears to make the production cuts optional, rather than a firm contract. That leaves the door open to potentially higher oil supplies than OPEC+ would like to see in Q1 2024 should member nations opt to pump more crude.
That might prove good news to motorists at the petrol station.
But it could see the final 2024 Woodside dividend come down from 2023's all-time highs.
