Lynas shares can rise 35% in 12 months: Bell Potter

This rare earths share is close to a 52-week low. Here's why it could be a buy.

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The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price was out of form on Monday.

The rare earths producer's shares dropped 3.5% to $6.07.

This leaves Lynas' shares trading within touching distance of a 52-week low.

Should you buy Lynas shares?

According to a note out of Bell Potter, its analysts believe that recent weakness has created a buying opportunity for investors.

In response to the company's first-quarter update, the broker has retained its buy rating with a slightly trimmed $8.20 price target.

This price target implies a potential upside of 35% for investors over the next 12 months.

What did the broker say?

Bell Potter acknowledges that Lynas has had a "wobbly start" to FY 2024. It said:

LYC 1QFY24 production was 1,526t (NdPr), 18% lower QoQ and 7% below our estimates as maintenance works were carried out at Lynas Malaysia (LAMP) over the quarter. Sales of 2,825t REO were 30% lower than 4QFY23 with LYC stockpiling ~22% of production over the quarter, which was beyond our assumption of 15%.

Nevertheless, even after factoring this into its valuation, the broker sees plenty of value in Lynas shares at current levels. Particularly given its long-term growth opportunities. It adds:

We have incorporated the 1QFY24 results and updated guidance which resulted in a 3.5% decrease in our target price to $8.20/sh (previously $8.50/sh) and we maintain our Buy recommendation in accordance with our ratings structure.

LYC is a high-quality business, and a key supplier of separated rare earths to Western economies. We do see risks of further earnings revisions over the next 12 months, however, note that this is a transition period, and the growth options over the long-term outweigh the near term risks.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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