The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is down 0.4% during the lunch hour on Monday.
But, as you'd expect, not all stocks are in the red.
At the time of writing the S&P/ASX 200 Energy Index (ASX: XEJ) is up 0.05% while the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) is up 2.1%.
While investor reactions have been relatively muted so far, I suspect the relative outperformance of energy and gold stocks is linked to the mayhem that unfolded in Russia over the weekend.
What's happening in Russia?
ASX 200 haven shares could be finding some support today while riskier stocks may be getting sold off following the Wagner mutiny in Russia on Saturday.
The now-aborted uprising was spearheaded by the mercenary group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close ally of President Vladimir Putin.
Wagner forcers advanced on Moscow in retribution for an errant Russian military missile attack that killed scores of their troops. But, after the Kremlin said it would drop treason charges against Prigozhin, Wagner forces halted their advance.
Atop highlighting the frightening instability in the nuclear-armed nation, what could the insurrection mean for ASX 200 shares?
What's the likely impact on ASX 200 shares?
Most analysts believe the immediate impact of the weekend chaos in Russia will boost safe-haven assets. Those include the US dollar, US Treasuries, gold, and potentially oil and gas, as Russia remains a significant global energy supplier despite Western sanctions.
A stronger US dollar could aid export-related ASX 200 shares while increasing the costs of companies reliant on imports.
Indeed, the Aussie dollar is down just over 1% to the US dollar since Friday, currently trading for 66.86 US cents.
Meanwhile, the gold price is up 0.5% to US$1,925.20 per ounce, while the Brent crude oil price is up 0.3% to US$74.08 per barrel.
A fair calm reaction so far, but certainly one that looks to be supporting ASX 200 energy and gold shares today amid the broader market retrace.
What are the experts saying?
Here's what these leading experts are saying about the likely impact of the aborted Russian mutiny on global markets and, by extension, ASX 200 shares (courtesy of Reuters).
According to aid Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities:
It certainly remains to be seen what happens in the next day or two, but if there remains uncertainty about leadership in Russia, investors may flock to safe havens.
I suspect that even though it seems the leadership challenge in Russia has been de-escalated, investors may remain nervous about subsequent instability, and could remain cautious.
"If the uncertainty escalates, you're going to see Treasuries get a bid, gold will get a bid and the Japanese yen tends to gain in situations like this," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial added.
Steve Sosnick, chief investment strategist Interactive Brokers, said, "First move is likely to be a bump in government bond prices (lower yields) and USD. Riskier assets tend to decline."
Pointing out that the situation remains fluid and "depends upon unknowable developments" Sosnick continued:
Even with Russian embargoes, they still sell plenty of raw materials to sympathetic nations like China and matter to the global supply. It is reasonable to expect oil and other key commodity prices to rise. If oil prices rise sharply, that will indeed weigh upon equities and reignite stagflation fears.
As for gold, he said, "In theory it should benefit from a flight to safety, but in practice a strong [US]dollar can impede it."
Then there are defence stocks, which are hard to come by on the ASX 200.
"Defence-related stocks should catch a bid – the world is not a safer place today – and commodity-linked stocks should also be outperformers," Sosnick said.
We'll leave off with George Boubouras, head of research K2 Asset Management, who believes global markets and the ASX 200 are likely to see more volatility in the wake of the weekend rebellion.
According to Boubouras:
Higher volatility lies ahead. However, fundamentals will eventually resurface. That is, economies in developed markets remain resilient and central banks' concerns with stubborn inflation create many challenges as rates need to go higher and remain higher for longer.
