Why did the Fortescue share price crash 13% in October?

Fortescue's shares were sold off in October…

| More on:
Person with thumbs down and a red sad face poster covering the face.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) share price was out of form in October.

During the month, the iron ore giant's shares lost almost 13% of their value.

This compares very unfavourably to the ASX 200 index, which charged 6% higher last month.

Why did the Fortescue share price tumble in October?

There were a couple of catalysts for the weakness in the Fortescue share price in October.

The first was a sharp pullback in iron ore prices amid concerns over demand in China and increasing supply.

December futures for the steel-making ingredient were down as low as US$75.20 a tonne on Monday, which is half the price they were commanding a little over seven months ago.

This doesn't bode well for Fortescue, particularly given that it produces a lower grade product which commands a lesser price from end users.

What else?

Fortescue recently released its decarbonisation plans for the Pilbara. After polluting the earth for a couple of decades, Fortescue is now aiming to hit net zero emissions by 2030.

However, doing so will come at a significant cost and is expected to result in the miner's dividend payments dwindling in the coming years.

While the announcement was made in late September, a number of brokers were discussing the impacts in October following a site visit. One of those was the bearish Goldman Sachs.

Once again, the broker revealed that one of the key reasons for its sell rating and $13.80 price target was the company's decarbonisation spend.

It stated that its analysts "continue to rate FMG a Sell on" its valuation, the widening of low grade iron ore price discounts, Iron Bridge execution and ramp up risks, "[u]ncertainties around Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) diversification and Pilbara decarbonisation and impact on dividend and balance sheet.

All in all, Goldman expects Fortescue's share to be offering yields as low as 3% from FY 2024.

In light of this, it is reasonable to presume that some income investors were hitting the sell button last month, putting additional pressure on the Fortescue share price.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A happy construction worker or miner holds a fistfull of Australian money, indicating a dividends windfall
Dividend Investing

Here's the BHP dividend forecast through to 2028

Will the Big Australian continue to reward shareholders with big dividends?

Read more »

Business people standing at a mine site smiling.
Materials Shares

Are BHP shares a buy following the miner's quarterly update?

Is now the time to buy this mining giant's shares? Let's see what Goldman Sachs is saying.

Read more »

Three miners stand together at a mine site studying documents with equipment in the background
Materials Shares

Pilbara Minerals share price tumbles on quarterly update

How did the lithium giant perform during the third quarter?

Read more »

A man in a business suit looks at a gold phone with his head in an exploding cloud of gold dust.
Materials Shares

Glitter up: Which ASX shares are commodities prices shining on in 2024?

Commodity prices have surged in 2024 driven by safe-haven demands and green technology needs.

Read more »

A female worker in a hard hat smiles in an oil field.
Materials Shares

Should you buy Rio Tinto shares following its quarterly update?

Let's see what analysts are saying about the mining giant.

Read more »

A male lion with a large mane sits atop a rocky mountain outcrop surveying the view, representing the outlook for the Liontown share price in FY23
Materials Shares

Where will Liontown shares be in 3 years?

Can this stock recharge investor excitement?

Read more »

A man checks his phone next to an electric vehicle charging station with his electric vehicle parked in the charging bay.
Materials Shares

2 of the best ASX 200 lithium stocks to buy now

Analysts speak very highly about these lithium miners.

Read more »

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Materials Shares

Why this ASX battery materials stock could rocket 60%

Bell Potter is tipping this stock to have a bright future.

Read more »