Why Macquarie is tipping 25% upside for the Lynas share price

We take a look at the outlook for the Lynas share price.

Key points
  • Macquarie is tipping a 25% upside for the Lynas share price 
  • Lynas is producing rare earths Neodymium and Praseodymium from Mt Weld in Western Australia 
  • Lynas was awarded a contract from the USA this year to construct a heavy rare earths separation facility 

The Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) share price has fallen since the start of the year, but one analyst believes there are better days ahead.

Lynas shares have fallen nearly 26% in the year to date and are currently trading at $7.55. In today's trade, the company's share price is down 1.44%. For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is 0.74% in the red today.

Let's take a look at the outlook for this rare earths explorer.

A mining worker wearing a hard hat, orange high vis vest, and blue long-sleeved shirt raises his fists in celebration with an excited expression on his face.

Image source: Getty Images

How high could the Lynas share price go?

Lynas is a rare earths company exploring the Mt Weld mine in Western Australia. The company also operates a rare earths processing plant in Malaysia.

The Lynas share price hit a yearly high of $11.39 in April before descending to the current share price.

However, the team at Macquarie believe Lynas can recoup some of these losses. The broker has raised the Lynas share price to outperform, the Australian Financial Review reported. Analysts have placed a $9.40 price target on Lynas shares. This is 25% more than the current share price.

Lynas reported a net profit after tax (NPAT) of $540.8 million in FY22, 244% more than the previous financial year. Revenue also lifted 88% from FY21 to $920 million.

Lynas produces Neodymium and Praseodymium (NdPr). The company is investing $500 million to increase capacity at the Mt Weld wine to 12,000 tonnes per annum of NdPr equivalent.

Lynas is also constructing a rare earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie and expanding to the United States.

The company is constructing a commercial Heavy Rare Earths separation facility in the United States, after receiving a US$120 million contract from the US Department of Defense. Planning is underway and this project is due to be operational in 2025.

Lynas share price snapshot

The Lynas share price has lost nearly 15% in the past month and nearly 7% in the last week. However, in the past year, Lynas shares have climbed 13%.

For perspective, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) has climbed 3% in the last year.

Lynas has a market capitalisation of nearly $6.83 billion based on the current share price.

Motley Fool contributor Monica O'Shea has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

Two business men looking at financial data, charts, and graphs on a digital tablet and a laptop computer.
Materials Shares

Alcoa posts higher net income, sets sights on AliGroup completion

Alcoa reported third quarter 2026 results, with higher net income and progress on the AliGroup acquisition.

Read more »

A woman sits in a cafe wearing a polka dotted shirt and holding a latte in one hand while reading something on a laptop that is sitting on the table in front of her
Materials Shares

Orora FY26 earnings: Cans strong, Glass under pressure

Orora's FY26 results show strength in Cans but ongoing challenges for Glass, including a substantial non-cash impairment.

Read more »

Three people at a building site discussing a plan whilst eating.
Materials Shares

Fletcher Building posts higher volumes in Q1 FY27, residential lags

Fletcher Building posted Q1 FY27 sales volume growth in several key business units, though residential activity stayed challenging.

Read more »

A bland looking man in a brown suit opens his jacket to reveal a red and gold superhero dollar symbol on his chest.
Materials Shares

2 ASX lithium shares to buy with 38% to 120% upside

Bell Potter sees potential for these shares to rise strongly over the next 12 months.

Read more »

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Materials Shares

Why are Lynas Rare Earths shares crashing 6% today?

Are Lynas Rare Earths shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

Read more »

Businessman planning and analysing investment data.
Materials Shares

Forget PLS, this ASX lithium stock could rise 80%

Is this lithium miner about to roar higher? Here's what Bell Potter is predicting.

Read more »

Couple using their digital tablet together.
Materials Shares

Orica updates on North American supply and land sales

Orica secures key North American supply and updates on land sales, supporting future growth and shareholder value.

Read more »

Man analysing data on his laptop.
Materials Shares

Forget BHP and buy this ASX copper stock

Bell Potter thinks there could be big returns on offer from this stock.

Read more »