NAB shares: Buy, hold, or fold?

Could the NAB share price really offer 15% upside?

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Key points

  • The NAB share price has outperformed the broader market by around 13% so far this year
  • And some top brokers expect it to continue on its upwards trajectory
  • Though, not all are bullish on the big four bank

The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price has been outperforming the broader market this year.

The NAB share price is trading at $30.14 right now. That's 2.8% higher than it started out 2022.

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) has dumped 10% year to date. That leaves the banking major having outperformed the market by around 13%.

Does it still have a bright future ahead of it? Top brokers appear to think so.

Is now a good time to snap up NAB shares?

According to brokers, the NAB share price is gearing up to post further gains in the near future. But not everyone is bullish.

Morgan Stanley had a rating similar to a hold on NAB and a $27.20 price target on its shares, as my Fool colleague Tristan reported earlier this month. That implies a potential 10% downside on its current level.

However, the broker's cynicism is overshadowed by others' optimism.

Citi recently upgraded the big four bank's stock to a buy rating and slapped it with a $32.75 price target – representing a potential 8% upside.

It likes NAB's growing business lending and tips it to benefit from rising net interest margins, Tristan reports.

Finally, Goldman Sachs is more bullish still. It also expects the bank's business lending to drive its growth as rate hikes boost its bottom line, as my Fool colleague James reports.

It tips the NAB share price to rise as high as $34.63, implying a potential 15% upside.

The broker is also expecting NAB to up its dividends to $1.50 per share in financial year 2023 and $1.70 per share in financial year 2024.

If those predictions come true, NAB's dividends will have lifted 18% on its financial year 2021 levels next fiscal year and by 34% in financial year 2024.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of The Ascent, a Motley Fool company. Motley Fool contributor Brooke Cooper has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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