The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has had a rough year so far, falling nearly 10% since the start of 2022.
While that leaves it outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) – it's fallen 11% year to date – the stock's tumble has left brokers tipping a considerable potential upside.
The BHP share price is $38.05 at the time of writing, having dumped 6% over the last 30 days.
For context, both the ASX 200 and the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) have slumped 5% since this time last month.
Do experts think the iron ore giant can pull out of its strop? Let's take a look.
Is the BHP share price a buy right now?
Most experts offer a bullish outlook for the BHP share price. However, one top broker is breaking away from the pack in doubting the ASX 200 giant.
And that broker is UBS. It's tipping the BHP share price to slide 6.7% to $35.50 amid falling commodity prices, my Fool colleague James reported earlier this month.
UBS isn't alone in questioning commodity prices. Fitch Solutions is said to have dropped its outlook for iron ore earlier this week.
It now tips the steelmaking ingredient's value to average US$115 a tonne this year, falling to US$100 a tonne in 2023, and by another US$10 each year thereafter until 2025, the Australian Financial Review reports.
But, while iron ore makes up a large portion of BHP's business, some tip its coal production to drive its stock higher in the near term.
According to The Australian, Macquarie lifted expectations on both the price of coal and BHP's shares earlier this week. The broker now tips the BHP share price to lift 10% to $42.
Meanwhile, Morgans has flagged the mining giant as one of its top tips for September. Its analysts slapped the stock with a whopping $48 price target – representing a potential 26% upside, saying:
While there are more leveraged plays sensitive to a global recovery scenario, we see BHP as holding an attractive combination of upside sensitivity, balance sheet strength, and resilient dividend profile.
Finally, Citi and Goldman Sachs have both slapped the stock with buy ratings and respective price targets of $44.50 and $40.50.
