Broker says the CBA share price is expensive and a sell

CBA's Q3 update smashed expectations but one leading broker remains bearish…

| More on:
Two brokers pointing and analysing a share price.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • CBA's shares pushed higher following its third quarter update
  • Australia's largest bank reported a cash profit of $2.4 billion for the three months, which was well ahead of expectations
  • However, this isn't enough for Goldman Sachs to take its sell rating off the bank's shares

On Thursday, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price pushed higher despite the market selloff.

This was driven by a positive reaction to the banking giant's third quarter update.

What happened during the third quarter?

For the three months ended 31 March, compared to the quarterly average during the first half, Australia's largest bank revealed a 1% decline in operating income to $6,103 million and flat cash earnings of $2,400 million.

According to note out of Goldman Sachs, this means that the bank's quarterly cash earnings are run-rating 10% ahead of its second half forecasts. In addition, it was 9% ahead of the analyst consensus estimate.

Is the CBA share price in the buy zone?

Despite the bank impressing during the quarter, Goldman Sachs still doesn't see enough value in the CBA share price to change its recommendation.

As a result, this morning the broker has retained its sell rating with an improved price target of $89.86.

Based on the current CBA share price of $102.15, this implies potential downside of 12% for investors over the next 12 months.

Why is the broker bearish?

The main reason that Goldman is bearish on the CBA share price is its valuation. The broker just doesn't believe that the bank's shares deserve to trade at such a premium to its rivals.

Goldman explained:

Overall we reiterate our Sell rating given: i) while CBA's balance sheet is strong and operationally, exhibited superior performance on volume growth versus its major bank peers (ANZ at 0.3x system average WBC at 0.4x, but NAB at 1.2x), ii) NIMs remain soft, with CBA more exposed to sector wide headwinds (elevated swap rates, portfolio mix effects and price competition). As such we do not believe this justifies the 53% PPOP premium it is currently trading on versus peers (peers adjusted for ex-dividend; versus 26% 15-yr average).

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Business people discussing project on digital tablet.
Bank Shares

Could the Macquarie share price reach $250 this year?

Macquarie shares would need to rise 18% to hit $250. Here is what earnings forecasts and valuations suggest about whether…

Read more »

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Is the ANZ share price a buy today?

How should investors expect the bank to perform in 2026?

Read more »

Half a man's face from the nose up peers over a table.
Bank Shares

Why is everyone talking about the Westpac share price this week?

All eyes are on the banking stock this week.

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

CBA vs. Westpac: Which is the better ASX bank stock for 2026?

If I had to choose just one Australian bank to own in 2026, this is where I’d lean.

Read more »

A worried woman sits at her computer with her hands clutched at the bottom of her face.
Bank Shares

CBA shares could crash below $100 in 2026: Here's why

Here's why the banking giant's share could tumble this year.

Read more »

Bank building with the word bank in gold.
Bank Shares

Here's the earnings forecast out to 2030 for Bendigo Bank shares

Can investors bank on earnings growth for this company?

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

How much passive income could I earn from Westpac shares

Is the bank a good option for income investors? Let's find out.

Read more »

A large clear wine glass on the left of the image filled with fifty dollar notes on a timber table with a wine cellar or cabinet with bottles in the background.
Dividend Investing

Which of the big 4 ASX 200 bank stocks paid the most passive income in 2025?

Just how much passive income did the ASX 200 banks like CBA pay in 2025?

Read more »