Are CBA shares a buy? Here's what analysts say

There's a disconnect between market sentiment and analyst sentiment for CBA.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • CBA shares have clawed back gains after prices whipsawed back towards 52-week highs in recent weeks 
  • Analysts aren't as constructive on the CBA share price and the majority of coverage rates it a sell 
  • In the last 12 months, CBA shares have spiked around 18% higher 

Shares of banking major Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are tracking lower today at $104.99.

After a wavy run this past half-year, CBA shares are now back within their 52-week highs and are now up around 4% for the year.

TradingView Chart
Two brokers analysing the share price with the woman pointing at the screen and man talking on a phone.

Image source: Getty Images

Are CBA shares a buy?

It appears that analyst sentiment has shifted towards CBA, with the majority of coverage now rating it a sell.

According to Bloomberg data, 10 firms rate CBA a sell at present, 4 a hold, with the remainder saying to buy. Two of those are Jefferies and Bell Potter, valuing the bank at $116 and $108 per share respectively.

However, the consensus price target from this entire list is $95.31 per share, suggesting a potential downside target if these brokers are right.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley aren't so sure about CBA and urge their clients to sell shares at the time of writing. The broker values CBA at $92 per share and reaffirmed its underweight rating in a recent note.

It was quick to point out that CBA's mortgage growth has slowed in 2022, something it reckons stems from increasing competition and higher funding costs in the segment.

Morgan Stanley also highlights that CBA no longer benefits from the $51 million term-funding facility provided by the RBA either, a lower-cost source of funding than traditional measures.

During the "price war of 2021" it was this term-funding facility that "supported above system loan growth" throughout the year, the broker says.

JP Morgan has followed a similar vein in its review of CBA, advocating clients to sell or reduce their exposure.

The firm values CBA at just $94 per share, a 10% downside target at the time of writing. It too noted the pressures from mortgage markets, and expects banks such as CBA "to face greater [net interest margin] NIM pressure in the short-term than NAB/ANZ".

In the last 12 months, CBA shares have spiked around 18% higher and are up 4% this year to date.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

View of a business man's hand passing a $100 note to another with a bank in the background.
Bank Shares

In the midst of economic turmoil, what does Morgan Stanley say the ASX banks are worth?

The economic headwinds are building.

Read more »

Three children wearing athletic short and singlets stand side by side on a running track wearing medals around their necks and standing with their hands on their hips.
Bank Shares

ANZ, NAB, Westpac, and CBA shares: Analysts rate 3 to sell, and 1 to buy

One ASX bank stock stands out from the rest.

Read more »

Three businesspeople leap high with the CBD in the background.
Bank Shares

Macquarie shares soar 21% to a 52-week high: Buy, sell or hold?

The investment bank's shares climbed higher again on Wednesday. Here's what analysts expect from the stock next.

Read more »

Woman leaping in the air and standing out from her friends who are watching.
Bank Shares

$5,000 invested in CBA shares two years ago is now worth…

It shows you don’t need high-risk growth stocks to build wealth.

Read more »

Woman in business suit holds both hands out with a question mark above each hand.
Bank Shares

What's going on with the ANZ share price?

ANZ shares have gone on a rollercoaster ride this year.

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

Are Westpac and Bank of Queensland shares a buy, hold or sell?

Which does the broker prefer?

Read more »

A woman in her late 30s holds her hands out either side with the palms up as if indicating she doesn't know the answer to a question. She has a quizzical look on her face.
Bank Shares

CBA shares jump another 9.5% in April: Buy, sell or hold?

CBA shares closed in the green again on Tuesday afternoon.

Read more »

A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.
Bank Shares

Why Westpac shares are holding near record highs after a $75 million hit

Westpac shares rise despite a $75 million half-year profit hit.

Read more »