Are CBA shares a buy? Here's what analysts say

There's a disconnect between market sentiment and analyst sentiment for CBA.

| More on:
Two brokers analysing the share price with the woman pointing at the screen and man talking on a phone.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • CBA shares have clawed back gains after prices whipsawed back towards 52-week highs in recent weeks 
  • Analysts aren't as constructive on the CBA share price and the majority of coverage rates it a sell 
  • In the last 12 months, CBA shares have spiked around 18% higher 

Shares of banking major Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) are tracking lower today at $104.99.

After a wavy run this past half-year, CBA shares are now back within their 52-week highs and are now up around 4% for the year.

TradingView Chart

Are CBA shares a buy?

It appears that analyst sentiment has shifted towards CBA, with the majority of coverage now rating it a sell.

According to Bloomberg data, 10 firms rate CBA a sell at present, 4 a hold, with the remainder saying to buy. Two of those are Jefferies and Bell Potter, valuing the bank at $116 and $108 per share respectively.

However, the consensus price target from this entire list is $95.31 per share, suggesting a potential downside target if these brokers are right.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley aren't so sure about CBA and urge their clients to sell shares at the time of writing. The broker values CBA at $92 per share and reaffirmed its underweight rating in a recent note.

It was quick to point out that CBA's mortgage growth has slowed in 2022, something it reckons stems from increasing competition and higher funding costs in the segment.

Morgan Stanley also highlights that CBA no longer benefits from the $51 million term-funding facility provided by the RBA either, a lower-cost source of funding than traditional measures.

During the "price war of 2021" it was this term-funding facility that "supported above system loan growth" throughout the year, the broker says.

JP Morgan has followed a similar vein in its review of CBA, advocating clients to sell or reduce their exposure.

The firm values CBA at just $94 per share, a 10% downside target at the time of writing. It too noted the pressures from mortgage markets, and expects banks such as CBA "to face greater [net interest margin] NIM pressure in the short-term than NAB/ANZ".

In the last 12 months, CBA shares have spiked around 18% higher and are up 4% this year to date.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Bank Shares

Why is Westpac stock beating the other ASX 200 banks today?

Why is this bank outperforming the others?

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Dividend Investing

NAB stock: Should you buy the 4.7% yield?

Do analysts think this banking giant is a buy for income investors?

Read more »

Three colleagues stare at a computer screen with serious looks on their faces.
Bank Shares

Westpac shares charge higher despite $164m profit hit

What's impacting the bank's profits in FY 2024?

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Bank Shares

Are ANZ shares a top buy for dividend income?

Can we bank on ANZ shares for passive income payments?

Read more »

Accountant woman counting an Australian money and using calculator for calculating dividend yield.
Bank Shares

How much do you need to invest in NAB shares for $12,000 in annual dividends?

Enjoying $12,000 in annual dividend income is no easy feat...

Read more »

A man thinks very carefully about his money and investments.
Bank Shares

Is the CBA share price heading for a fall?

Experts are still saying CBA shares are a sell.

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands, despairing at the bad result he's reading on his computer.
Bank Shares

Sell Bank of Queensland shares before they crash

Now is not the time to buy this bank's shares according to a leading broker.

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Bank Shares

Westpac stock: Should you buy the 5.5% yield?

Is Westpac an easy buy today for that 5.5% yield?

Read more »