Later this week, all eyes will be on the South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price when it releases its half year results.
Ahead of its results release on Thursday, let's take a look to see what the market is expecting from the mining giant.
Image source: Getty Images
What is expected from South32's half year results?
Much like we have seen today from former parent BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), the market is expecting bumper profits from South32 during the first half.
According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts are forecasting underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) ahead of the market's expectations.
Goldman has pencilled in EBITDA of US$1.9 billion for the period, compared to the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of US$1.82 billion.
Either way, it will be an enormous increase on the prior corresponding period. This time last year, South32 delivered underlying EBITDA of US$633 million. This means that Goldman's estimate implies a 200% increase year on year. This is being driven by favourable commodity prices and strong production.
When it comes to its bottom line, Goldman is actually sitting in line with the market consensus estimate with its forecast for a net profit after tax of US$1 billion. This represents a stunning 637% increase over the prior corresponding period.
What else?
Given this massive profit increase, South32 shareholders are expected to be rewarded with a generous dividend payment. Goldman is forecasting an 8.6 US cents per share interim dividend, while the market has pencilled in a 9.9 US cents per share dividend.
Based on current exchange rates and the latest South32 share price of $4.41, this interim dividend equates to a 2.7% yield on Goldman's numbers and a 3.1% yield on the market's numbers.
Goldman summarised: "GSe underlying EBITDA US$1.9bn vs. VA consensus US$1.8bn. NPAT US$1.0bn vs. VA cons US$1.0bn. Interim dividend US8.6cps (40% payout) vs. VA cons US9.9cps. Net cash US$0.9bn vs. VA cons US$0.9bn. S32 may lift FY22 opex and capex guidance due to cost inflation, should extend the on-market buyback program (GSe US$250mn p.a.) and provide an update on the closure timing of the Sierra Gorda, restart of the Alumar smelter in Brazil, re-scoping of the Dendrobium next domain (DND) met coal project."
Is the South32 share price in the buy zone?
Goldman believes the South32 share price offers plenty of upside at current levels.
It currently has a conviction buy rating and $5.00 price target. This implies 13% upside over the next 12 months before dividends.
