How does the Afterpay (ASX:APT) result compare with broker expectations?

How did Afterpay's results compare to expectations?

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Afterpay Ltd (ASX: APT) share price is trading lower on Wednesday following the release of its full year results.

In afternoon trade, the buy now pay later (BNPL) provider's shares are down 1% to $133.78.

ASX share price on watch represented by woman investor looking at ASX financial results on laptop

Image source: Getty Images

What happened in FY 2021?

Afterpay was on form again in FY 2021 and delivered further strong growth in most key metrics.

For the 12 months ended 30 June, Afterpay's underlying sales grew 90% (or 102% in constant currency) year on year to $21.1 billion.

This was driven by a 146% increase in North American underlying sales to $9.8 billion, a 44% jump in ANZ underlying sales to $9.4 billion, and a 227% jump in Clearpay underlying sales to $1.8 billion.

Underpinning this growth was a 63% increase in active customers to 16.2 million. This reflects an 88% jump in North America to 10.5 million, a 104% increase in Clearpay customers to 2.1 million, and a more modest 8% lift in ANZ customers to 3.6 million.

Afterpay reported a net margin of $434.1 million, which was up 74% year on year. This was the result of its strong underlying sales growth, which was offset slightly by a reduction in its net margin ratio from 2.3% to 2.06%.

Finally, underlying EBITDA came in at $38.7 million, down 13% year on year.

How does this compare to expectations?

According to a note out of Ord Minnett, Afterpay fell short of its earnings expectations in FY 2021.

The broker was expecting underlying EBITDA of $75.4 million, which is almost double what the company actually achieved. This miss was due to higher than expected costs. However, because of the takeover approach from Square, it didn't expect the Afterpay share price to come under meaningful pressure for this miss.

Also missing expectations was its net margin of 2.06%. According to a note out of UBS, its analysts were expecting a margin of 2.25% for the year, whereas the market consensus stood at 2.12%. UBS notes that this was driven by its net transaction loss increasing from 38bps of underlying sales in FY 2020 to 63bps in FY 2021.

Finally, the team at Wilsons note that Afterpay's revenue was ahead of its expectations by approximately 2%.

However, although Afterpay beat its revenue expectations in FY 2021, the broker suspects that its forecasts for FY 2022 might be asking too much of the company. This is due to the broker's concerns that its US customer growth could be peaking after a flat finish to the year.

Overall, a bit of a mixed result in comparison to the market's expectations. Though, with Square acquiring the company, this hasn't had a great impact on the Afterpay share price today.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended AFTERPAY T FPO. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Broker Notes

A man clenches his fists in excitement as gold coins fall from the sky.
Broker Notes

Ord Minnett tips these ASX All Ords shares to rise 30% to 50%

Let's see what the broker is recommending to clients.

Read more »

A man casually dressed looks to the side in a pensive, thoughtful manner with one hand under his chin, holding a mobile phone in his hand while thinking about something.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: DBI, GQG Partners, and Rio Tinto shares

Here's what the broker is saying about these shares.

Read more »

Business man at desk looking out window with his arms behind his head at a view of the city and stock trends overlay.
Broker Notes

Brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy today

Here's why brokers are feeling bullish about these three shares this week.

Read more »

Middle age caucasian man smiling confident drinking coffee at home.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Collins Foods, Endeavour, and Magellan shares

What is Morgans saying about these top shares this week?

Read more »

A man rests his chin in his hands, pondering what is the answer?
Broker Notes

Are Liontown shares a buy after its results?

Let's see if Bell Potter thinks this lithium miner is a buy.

Read more »

A happy male investor turns around on his chair to look at a friend while a laptop runs on his desk showing share price movements
Broker Notes

Ord Minnett names 2 ASX 200 shares to accumulate with 10% and 20% upside

Let's see what the broker is saying about these shares.

Read more »

a happy investor with a wide smile points to a graph that shows an upward trending share price
Resources Shares

2 ASX mining shares with 60% to 100% potential upside: experts

Brokers say these ASX mining shares should gain significant value over the next 12 months.

Read more »

A man has a surprised and relieved expression on his face.
Broker Notes

Why this broker just boosted its Lynas share price valuation by 60%

Bell Potter has taken its sell rating off this high-flying stock.

Read more »