CBA (ASX:CBA) share buyback ahead of forecast: broker

Analysts begin weighing in on CBA's full year result…

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price is climbing higher on Wednesday after Australia's biggest bank delivered its highly anticipated full-year results.

At the time of writing, shares in CBA are commanding a $108 price, up 1.39%. Today's rally puts the bank's gain over the past 12 months at more than 43%.

A major contributing factor to CBA's strength today might lay in the monstrous $6 billion share buyback it announced.

Exceeding Citi's expectations

It has been a joyous day for CBA shareholders following the release of the bank's full-year results. To briefly summarise, Australia's largest bank reported a net profit after tax of $8,843 million, representing a 19.7% increase year over year.

The significant jump in earnings was helped along by a large reduction in loan impairment expenses and provisions. According to the release, loan impairments were down 78% to $554 million.

All in all, these figures were reportedly in line with leading broker Citi. However, one metric that the broker wasn't expecting was the massive $6 billion buyback program. Instead, analysts had been expecting in the ballpark of $5 billion. A beat that is likely pushing CBA higher on the ASX today.

Commenting on the large off-market buyback, Citi analysts said:

It appears CBA's rationale for $6 billion revolves around the $6.2 billion of excess capital generated by divestments. Post buyback, CBA retains ~$5 billion of organically generated excess capital.

However, not everything was rosy in the eyes of the broker.

What's baked into CBA on the ASX?

While the share buyback will likely drive an increase in return on equity and dividends per share, Citi seems apprehensive about the forward tailwinds for the big bank.

More to the point, analysts relayed that CBA's revenue momentum was secluded to Australian mortgages and a strong New Zealand print. Meanwhile, contraction took place in its business banking revenue, despite growth in its lending amount.

On top of that, trading revenue dropped by roughly 40% as share market volatility subsided.

However, despite an overall in-line result, the revenue outlook appears more challenged than our expectations. Consequently, investors will be asking the question of at which point is excess capital and provisions in the share price?

Citi analysts

Based on the CBA share price at the time of writing, the bank is trading on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.7 times.

Motley Fool contributor Mitchell Lawler owns shares of Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Bank Shares

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Is the ANZ share price a buy today?

How should investors expect the bank to perform in 2026?

Read more »

Half a man's face from the nose up peers over a table.
Bank Shares

Why is everyone talking about the Westpac share price this week?

All eyes are on the banking stock this week.

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

CBA vs. Westpac: Which is the better ASX bank stock for 2026?

If I had to choose just one Australian bank to own in 2026, this is where I’d lean.

Read more »

A worried woman sits at her computer with her hands clutched at the bottom of her face.
Bank Shares

CBA shares could crash below $100 in 2026: Here's why

Here's why the banking giant's share could tumble this year.

Read more »

Bank building with the word bank in gold.
Bank Shares

Here's the earnings forecast out to 2030 for Bendigo Bank shares

Can investors bank on earnings growth for this company?

Read more »

A man in a suit smiles at the yellow piggy bank he holds in his hand.
Bank Shares

How much passive income could I earn from Westpac shares

Is the bank a good option for income investors? Let's find out.

Read more »

A large clear wine glass on the left of the image filled with fifty dollar notes on a timber table with a wine cellar or cabinet with bottles in the background.
Dividend Investing

Which of the big 4 ASX 200 bank stocks paid the most passive income in 2025?

Just how much passive income did the ASX 200 banks like CBA pay in 2025?

Read more »

A group of people sit around a table playing cards in a work office style setting.
Bank Shares

Will 2026 be make-or-break for the Westpac share price?

Westpac’s turnaround has been real. Whether it can now justify its valuation is the key question for 2026.

Read more »