ELMO (ASX:ELO) share price tipped to jump 54% higher from here

This tech share could be heading higher…

| More on:
A hipster dude leaps in the air with glee, seeing positive news on his tablet.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The ELMO Software Ltd (ASX: ELO) share price is recovering on Tuesday morning following a sizeable pullback on Monday after the release of its full year results.

At the time of writing, the cloud-based human resources and payroll software company's shares are up 2% to $5.07.

How did ELMO perform in FY 2021?

For the 12 months ended 30 June, ELMO reported annualised recurring revenue (ARR) of $83.8 million. This was up 52.1% on the prior corresponding period. This was driven by a combination of organic growth and the benefits of acquisitions.

Also heading in the right direction was its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). It came in at $0.4 million in FY 2021, compared to a $2.9 million loss in FY 2020.

So why did the ELMO share price drop?

The weakness in the ELMO share price on Monday was likely to have been driven by concerns over its churn levels.

The company's ARR churn was 11.6% for its ELMO business and 13.6% for its Breathe business. The former was up from 7.8% year on year.

However, it is worth noting that this was driven by the impact of COVID-19 on its customers. This could mean a significant improvement next year if the COVID situation doesn't escalate globally.

Management chat

I was fortunate enough to be in a position to have a chat with ELMO CEO Danny Lessem following the release of the result.

Mr Lessem was deservedly pleased with the company's performance during the year and optimistic on the year ahead. Particularly given how the company is well-placed to benefit from improving business confidence and the increase in remote based working. The latter is driving the adoption of cloud-based business tools.

This is expected to support a return to pre-COVID growth levels and underpin further operating leverage.

I asked the CEO about acquisitions, given that ELMO finished the period with a cash balance of $81.9 million. While ELMO continues to look for strategic acquisitions, Mr Lessem notes that M&A multiples are a lot higher now than when the company acquired Breathe and Webexpenses. As such, there are slim pickings in the space.

Is the ELMO share price in the buy zone?

According to a note out of Morgan Stanley, the broker sees a lot of value in the ELMO share price and has retained its overweight rating.

And while the broker has cut its price target to $7.80, based on the latest ELMO share price, this still implies potential upside of ~54% over the next 12 months.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended Elmo Software. The Motley Fool Australia owns shares of and has recommended Elmo Software. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

More on Technology Shares

A woman scratches her head in dismay as she looks at chaotic scene at a data centre
Opinions

Should you buy CSL shares before 2026?

CSL shares have suffered brutal sell-offs this year.

Read more »

A man in his 30s holds his laptop and operates it with his other hand as he has a look of pleasant surprise on his face as though he is learning something new or finding hidden value in something on the screen.
Cheap Shares

2 ASX 200 shares with massive upside potential according to brokers

WiseTech and NextDC shares have pulled back in recent times, but brokers see meaningful upside from current levels.

Read more »

Five happy friends on their phones.
Technology Shares

Why is everyone talking about DroneShield shares today?

The company is making some big changes after recent events.

Read more »

Man looking at digital holograms of graphs, charts, and data.
Technology Shares

This ASX AI stock is jumping 9% on huge news

Business is booming for this data centre operator.

Read more »

A man sits in deep thought with a pen held to his lips as he ponders his computer screen with a laptop open next to him on his desk in a home office environment.
Technology Shares

Why I think these 3 ASX shares are top-quality buying at today's prices

These 3 high-quality ASX shares have fallen out of favour. I think they all look attractive at today’s prices.

Read more »

Cheerful businessman with a mining hat on the table sitting back with his arms behind his head while looking at his laptop's screen.
Technology Shares

What's the latest update on takeover target RPM Global?

An extraordinary 99.88% of votes cast were in favour of the takeover.

Read more »

A woman jumps for joy with a rocket drawn on the wall behind her.
Technology Shares

Why is this ASX tech stock jumping 14% on Friday?

This tech stock is ending the week in style.

Read more »

Man ponders a receipt as he looks at his laptop.
Technology Shares

Why experts think the Xero share price could rise 70% in 2026!

This business is one of the most impressive businesses on the ASX.

Read more »