Is the CBA (ASX:CBA) share price overvalued?

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) share price is up 18% in November. Is it overvalued now?

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has been a very strong performer in November.

Since the start of the month, the CBA share price has climbed an impressive 18% to $81.33.

customer making payment at a cafe using CBA albert

Image Source: Commonwealth Bank

Is it too late to buy CBA shares?

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, investors might be better off looking at other investment options in the banking sector.

Its analysts have recently retained their sell rating but lifted the price target on the bank's shares slightly to $65.84.

This price target implies potential downside of 19% for its shares over the next 12 months excluding dividends.

Why is Goldman Sachs bearish on the banking giant?

Goldman Sachs has issues over the bank's valuation and the premium its shares trade at in comparison to the rest of the big four.

Following the release of its first quarter update this month, the broker said: "While CBA's balance sheet is strong, with a sector leading capital and provisioning position, CBA's operational performance in 1Q21, particularly as it relates to costs, does not justify the 24% premium it is currently trading on versus peers (versus 15% 15-yr average)."

Which bank does the broker like?

Goldman Sachs' top pick in the sector is National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).

It explained: "NAB remains our preferred major bank exposure, based on i) our view that it will deliver better than peer revenue growth, supported by its superior management of the volume/margin trade-off, ii) its investment spend which appears further progressed relative to peers allowing it to be more selective towards where resources are directed, contributing to its broadly flat FY21 cost target (c.0-2%), and iii) when combined, drives our forecast for NAB to deliver top of peer PPOP per share growth over the next three years."

However, it is worth noting that the broker put a price target of $22.96 on NAB's shares last week. But due to its strong share price gain, it is actually now trading above this at $23.60.

I suspect that Goldman Sachs will revisit its recommendation following NAB's annual general meeting in the coming weeks. So stay tuned for that.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on ASX Share Market News

A man with a wry smile on his face is shown close up behind ascending piles of coins as he places another coin on top of the tallest stack representing rising dividends
52-Week Lows

2 ASX shares near 52-week lows I'd buy today

These investments look incredibly cheap to me!

Read more »

Three people in a corporate office pour over a tablet, ready to invest.
Broker Notes

Experts say 4DMedical, SGH, and Rio Tinto shares are buys

Let's see why these shares could be in the buy zone this week.

Read more »

A group of tech people gather around a computer operated by a young woman while the group looks on in support.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Aussie Broadband, James Hardie, Macquarie shares

Let's take a look at some buy, hold, and sell calls from the experts.

Read more »

Contented looking man leans back in his chair at his desk and smiles.
ASX Share Market News

5 things to watch on the ASX 200 on Monday

Will the market have a good start to the week? Here's what you need to know.

Read more »

Worker at a gas and oil pipeline.
ASX Share Market News

ASX 200 energy shares rise 6% as reignited US-Iran conflict continues

The Brent crude oil price neared US$100 per barrel amid escalated attacks in the Middle East last week.

Read more »

Man putting golden coins on a board, representing multiple streams of income.
Broker Notes

3 ASX 200 shares UBS says will return 15% to 35%

These major companies still have a fertile growth path ahead, UBS says.

Read more »

Broker written in white with a man drawing a yellow underline.
Broker Notes

Top brokers name 3 ASX shares to buy next week

Brokers gave buy ratings to these ASX shares last week. Why are they bullish?

Read more »

A graphic depicting a businessman in a business suit standing with his hand to his chin looking at a large red arrow pointing upwards above a line up of oil barrels againist the backdrop of a world map.
Broker Notes

As oil surges, how high do brokers think Santos shares will go?

Opinions are divided on the value of the company.

Read more »