It is, usually, the race that stops a nation.
But this year, it feels like we've stopped already.
There are fewer Melbourne Cup events this time around.
Even the usually trusty 'gather 'round the telly in the office' vibe will be tested with many of us working from home.
Strangest still is that the 2020 Cup will be run in front of empty stands.
What is the Cup without the marquees, the guests, the glamour and the crowds?
I assume the broadcasters will throw a little 'canned' crowd noise over the footage, like the footy coverage has been doing, to create a little atmosphere, but is it the same when we know there's no-one there?
Me? I'm not so worried.
I'm an introvert, I work from home and, frankly, I've never, ever been a contender for 'fashions on the field'.
But it just feels strange.
The build-up isn't quite the same. The anticipation isn't really there.
The race is, perhaps, a singularly appropriate metaphor for 2020.
Now, if you've been reading these pieces for any length of time, you'll know that I tend to have an investing point to make.
The story and the investing 'moral' aren't confected: they're usually just inspired by whatever event I describe at the top, and my re-telling it is a way to share my own thought process and conclusions.
So, you might expect a seamless, clever (hey, let a bloke dream) segue from the paragraphs above into some investing moral just below.
Not so fast.
See, once a year, we indulge in a little Melbourne Cup fun.
We're not fans of gambling on sports or racing, generally speaking. The house, as you know, always wins.
But we're not completely boring, either.
We'll be watching the Cup. Some of us will have a small once-a-year flutter, just to get into the spirit of things.
And, frankly, given the year we've all had, I can't begrudge anyone a small punt just for the fun of it.
As investors, though, we're pretty ordinary tipsters.
(Including our old mate, Burgo, who thought he could tip us a winner last year, and, well… didn't. To be fair, we got a place out of him, but that was it!)
What we have done, though, is to bring back our regular tipster, Lewy.
Lewy gave us three tips last year, and one of his placegetters, Vow and Declare, was first past the post. If you'd put a few bucks each way on each of his tips, you came out ahead.
So, we've asked Lewy for his tips for this year's Cup.
(We haven't asked Burgo this year. You can thank me later.)
As ever, we don't recommend making a habit of betting on the nags, but consider this one of two official Foolish exemptions (the other is two-up on ANZAC Day). Here are Lewy's thoughts:
"Tuesday sees another cracking edition of the Melbourne Cup. It is arguably one of the best renewals of the past decade with impressive winners, and flashing light defeats, coming out of all the key lead up races like the Cox Plate & Caulfield Cup. The northern hemisphere raiders are back once again and there is certainly no shortage of talent that has managed to traverse challenging travel protocols to get to the southern hemisphere, just in time for Tuesday.
"The Cox Plate is the race I have landed on as the one most likely to provide this year's Cup winner. Sir Dragonet ($11) was so impressive at Moonee Valley that he must be the starting point. I like that he won that race by an ever-increasing margin suggesting the extra distance of the Cup might even suit him better. Russian Camelot ($13) was brave when 3rd in the Cox Plate working early and having to make his run a long way from home. I am expecting a quieter ride here which should give him every chance to test Sir Dragonet late. Best roughie could be The Chosen One ($41). He is flying this prep and was super in the Caulfield Cup, finishing just behind a couple (Verry Elleegant & Anthony Van Dyck) who are significantly shorter in the market on Tuesday. Best of luck."
So, there you have it: Sir Dragonet, Russian Camelot and The Chosen One.
(Though to be fair to Lewy, he sent those before he knew I drew The Chosen One in the office sweep. That's not a good omen… consider yourself warned.)
So, enjoy!
Don't go silly, of course, but I reckon after the past 6 months we've earned a little fun today.
A couple of bucks each way on a few horses, a glass of something bubbly if that's your thing, and cheer home whatever horse you fancy – even if you are just choosing by colours or your favourite number.
Oh, and remember; past performance is no guarantee of future returns… right Burgo?
