Are ASX 200 gold shares about to get a boost from this 'positive set-up'

S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gold shares outperformed the benchmark index again on Thursday.

I say 'again' because ASX gold stocks, both large-cap and small-cap, have broadly been outpacing the average market returns over the past 12 months.

At market close yesterday, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index (ASX: XGD) – which also contains some smaller miners outside of ASX 200 gold shares – finished up 2.4%. That's almost five times the 0.5% gain posted by the ASX 200 at this same time.

Atop some of their own company-specific achievements, the miners all have a rising gold price to thank for helping lift their shares.

This time last year, bullion was trading for US$1,751 per ounce. In late afternoon on Thursday, the gold price stood at US$1,921 per ounce, representing a one-year gain of 9.8%.

That's helped lift the ASX All Ords Gold Index by 28% over 12 months, 14 times the 2% gains posted by the ASX 200 over the full year.

Here's how some of the top ASX 200 gold shares have performed over that period:

• The Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) share price is up 45%
• The Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) share price is up 38%
• The Gold Road Resources Ltd (ASX: GOR) share price is up 21%
• The Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM) share price is up 36%

And these gains don't even include any dividends the gold miners have paid out over the year.

So, what's all this about a 'positive set-up' for gold?

More tailwinds ahead for ASX 200 gold shares?

As you can see in the figures quoted above, a roughly 10% annual increase in the gold price led to far higher gains for these ASX 200 gold shares.

That's because the miners' production costs are relatively fixed. Meaning any increase (or decrease) in the gold price goes straight to their bottom line.

While no one can forecast with certainty where the gold price is headed over the next 12 months, two separate surveys conducted by Bloomberg indicate retail and professional investors are widely bullish on the outlook.

In one survey, 12 money managers from sovereign funds and hedge funds said they intended to either increase or maintain their gold holdings over the coming year. Five of the professional money managers are forecasting the yellow metal will hit new record highs over the next 12 months.

New all-time highs would certainly come as welcome news for ASX 200 gold shares. And their shareholders.

In a second survey, 602 respondents broadly expected the gold price to rise, with a median response forecast of US$2,021 per ounce.

According to Darwei Kung, head of commodities at DWS Group (quoted by Bloomberg):

We do anticipate there's pent-up gold demand from investors waiting for the Fed to finish. That's a positive set-up from our perspective.

Kung is forecasting the gold price to rise to new all-time highs of US$2,250 an ounce once the US Fed reassures investors that it's done hiking interest rates.

That's 17% above the current gold price.

Now, remember.

The ASX 200 gold shares we looked at above all posted those outsized one-year gains on the back of a 9% increase in the price of the yellow metal.

If DWS Group's Kung is right, the year ahead could see even more outperformance from the big Aussie gold producers.