ASX 200 gold shares can move and fall with the price of gold, so will the yellow metal be a safe haven this year?
Major gold producers on the ASX 200 include Newcrest Mining Ltd (ASX: NCM), Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN), and Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST).
Let's take a look at the outlook for ASX 200 gold shares.
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What's ahead in 2023?
Spot gold is currently priced at US$1876 an ounce, CNBC data shows. Gold hit a high of US$2,043.30 in March 2022 before sliding to a low of US$1630.90 in November.
Since then, gold prices have recovered amid investor optimism that the US Federal Reserve may ease up on interest rate hikes. Interest rate rises tend to lift the US dollar, an alternative safe haven to gold.
RBC Capital Markets analysts have recently upgraded their forecast for the gold price by 1% to US$1,735 per ounce in 2023, the Australian Financial Review reported. In 2024, the broker is tipping gold to fall slightly to US$1,700. In a research note cited by the publication, analysts said:
We view a brighter macro backdrop ahead for gold, although prices have been resilient in the face of significant prior headwinds, and future upside may have already been front-run.
Forecast changes increase our Australian coverage FY23 EPS by typically 5-10 per cent and reduce FY24 EPS by around 5-10 per cent.
Meanwhile, Bank of America is targeting gold to fetch US$2,000 an ounce in the second half of the year, as my Foolish colleague Bernd reported. Head of global commodities Francisco Blanch said:
Current headwinds are unlikely to abate until the Fed turns less hawkish. While the US central bank will in all likelihood keep tightening monetary policy, the pace of rate hikes should start to slow. This pivot will likely bring new investors into the market.
Further, CBA predicts gold to trade between US$1,750 and US$1,850 an ounce.
Share price snapshot
The Newcrest Mining share price has shed 7% in the last year.
The Northern Star share price has soared 31.5% in the past 52 weeks.
Evolution Mining shares have slid nearly 14% in the last year.
