It's only human nature to be buoyed by ASX shares that have risen and scared of those that have fallen.
But stocks themselves don't have any memory.
They don't care whether they have been soaring or plunging. All that matters is where it will go from now.
Santa might only bring presents to nice girls and boys, but naughty shares can still be handsomely rewarded if the underlying business performs well.
With this in mind, the team at Celeste Funds Management this week named two stocks it holds that gained spectacularly in November and one that bitterly disappointed.
But all three, the analysts hope, are set to reach lofty heights.
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'Asset quality remains solid'
Small business bank Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) saw its share price climb a tidy 18.4% in November.
The Celeste team, in a memo to clients, attributed this to "strong" briefing at its annual general meeting in late October.
"The update confirmed Judo appear[s] to be on track to reach their at-scale metrics, with the loan book growing to $6.8 billion."
Despite an excellent November, the Judo share price is still more than 39% down year to date.
The prospect of an economic slowdown or a recession does not concern Celeste analysts.
"Judo's asset quality remains solid with no material uptick in arrears and the company remains well-capitalised with a 19.5% CET1 ratio, well in excess of the major banks benchmark of circa 10.5%."
The bank also revealed new appointments to the deputy executive officer and chief financial officer positions.
Opening new stores
Furniture merchant Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK) enjoyed a 12.2% rise in value last month.
Again, Celeste analysts tracked this back to an AGM update, which apparently "alleviated market concerns around short-term consumer demand".
"Group revenue for the four months to October was 74% above the prior year while written sales orders were 55% above the prior year," the memo read.
"Ongoing Plush synergy capture saw group gross margins expand to 61.3% from 59.5% in June 2022, resulting in expected 1H23 net profit of between $56 million and $59 million, [which is] a 57% to 66% increase on the prior year."
Similar to Judo, one good month still leaves Nick Scali shares a long way from breaking even in 2022. The stock is more than 29% lower than where it started the year.
The Celeste team sees a viable growth plan in the Nick Scali business.
"Management intends to continue their store rollout strategy, aiming to open at least six new stores across the group in FY23."
Focus on the long-term growth
Infomedia Limited (ASX: IFM) makes software for the vehicle parts and services sector.
Unfortunately, its share price plummeted a painful 10.2% over November.
Again, the AGM was to blame, with the company downgrading its revenue guidance at the event.
"Infomedia noted that the range would be $127 million to $132 million, down from previous expectations of $131 to $139 million," read the Celeste memo.
"The slippage has been driven by a slowdown in ecommerce transactions, in part, an unwind of the previous year's covid driven spike."
But the Celeste analysts were not worried about that. They were focused on what the future would bring.
"More relevant was the announcement that Infomedia data offerings continue to see double-digit revenue growth," read the memo.
"The new CEO is seeking to address the legacy cost base while at the same time driving the sales discussion and negotiations towards the higher level management at the major global auto players."
The Infomedia share price is down 28.8% year to date.
