The uptick is great news for investors after the airline's shares suffered a very rocky start to the year. 

But there is a long way to go before the shares can claw back losses shed over the past six months. Virgin Australia shares are now down 28% for the year-to-date. They're also down over 32% from an all-time high in October last year. 

The airline hasn't been trading for 12 consecutive months yet, but it launched its initial public offering (IPO) at $2.90 per share in June last year.

Why have Virgin Australia shares been tumbling?

It looks like the initial decline late last year was investors selling up and taking gains off the table after the IPO announcement caused a share price rally.

Then, over the past couple of months, Virgin Australia shares have faced some strong headwinds. 

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has severely restricted the supply of jet fuel (which is derived from refined crude oil). The airline has previously raised its domestic airfares in response to rising jet fuel costs in effort to maintain or even boost revenue. But investors were still concerned about how the higher jet fuel prices will affect the airlines operating costs and profits. 

There have also been reports that Virgin Australia's partnership with Qatar Airways has come under pressure while the war continues to affect aviation routes. 

An overall shift in sentiment has caused Virgin Australia shares to tumble as investors sell up their holdings.

And what caused the latest share price spike?

But it looks like the stock took a sharp u-turn on Wednesday. Ahead of the ASX open the company confirmed that its FY26 financial guidance remains unchanged. Despite fuel prices almost doubling, the airline still expects its underlying EBIT to improve in the second half of FY26.

Virgin Australia's fuel costs are expected to be around $30 million to $40 million above its earlier forecasts. But because it has strong hedging, the group is protected against most price rises. 

The airline confirmed that 92% of its Brent crude and 71% of refining margin exposure is hedged for the remainder of FY26.

The company's outlook for FY26 remains solid. And it looks like investors breathed a huge sigh of relief.

Can Virgin Australia's shares keep climbing from here?

According to analyst estimates, Virgin Australia shares have a long way to run before they reach their peak.

TradingView data shows that seven out of eight analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the airline's shares. 

The average target price of $3.79 implies a 50% upside at the time of writing, whereas the maximum $4.10 target price suggests the stock could surge another 63% over the next 12 months. 

The post Are Virgin Australia shares a buy after flying 7% higher on Wednesday? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are rising more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are storming higher:

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN)

The Evolution Mining share price is up 7% to $14.16. Investors have been buying the gold miner's shares following the release of its quarterly update. The company reported March quarterly gold production of 170,000 ounces and copper production of 11,000 tonnes. This was achieved with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,220 per ounce, which underpinned record quarterly net mine cash flows. At Mungari it generated $175 million and at Red Lake it generated $104 million in net mine cash flow. Evolution Mining's CEO, Lawrie Conway, said: "Evolution continues to generate significant cash flows from consistent operational delivery and disciplined capital allocation. We have rapidly deleveraged by more than 31% in just over two years, reaching a net cash position by the end of March."

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB)

The Mesoblast share price is up 8% to $2.17. This morning, the biotechnology company announced the acquisition of an exclusive worldwide license to a patented chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) technology platform for precision-enhanced augmentation of therapeutic mesenchymal lineage stromal cell (MSC) products. Mesoblast advised that it plans to incorporate the engineered CARs to further boost effectiveness of its products, with the goal of enhancing the target specificity and augmenting inherent properties of immunomodulation and tissue regeneration.

Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF)

The Nufarm share price is up almost 13% to $2.50. This follows the release of a trading update from the agricultural chemicals company this morning. Nufarm revealed that it expects first-half underlying EBITDA to come in between $239 million and $244 million. At the midpoint, that represents 17% growth on the prior corresponding period. This is being driven by better margins in Crop Protection, growth in Hybrid Seeds, and improved contributions from its omega-3 and bioenergy platforms.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)

The Virgin Australia share price is up 8% to $2.54. This has been driven by the release of an update from the airline operator today. Virgin Australia advised that its FY 2026 financial guidance remains unchanged, with underlying EBIT and EBIT margin expected to improve in the second half despite a surge in fuel prices. While higher fuel costs are impacting its business, its hedging has helped offset much of the impact. It said: "For the remainder of 2HFY26, the Group is hedged 92% for Brent crude oil and 71% for refining margins. […]  This is expected to result in an increase of fuel costs for 2HFY26 of approximately $30-40m compared to previous expectations."

The post Why Evolution Mining, Mesoblast, Nufarm, and Virgin Australia shares are storming higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's a welcome reprieve for Virgin Australia shares.

Over the past month, the stock had fallen 9%, and it's still down a steep 28% year to date. That's a sharp underperformance compared to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which has slipped just 3.1% in 2026.

Financial guidance intact

So what's changed? Virgin Australia confirmed on Wednesday that its FY26 financial guidance remains intact, despite a surge in fuel prices that has rattled the aviation sector. The airline still expects underlying EBIT and margins to improve in the second half of FY26.

That was the reassurance investors were looking for. Fuel costs are the biggest swing factor for airlines, and recent volatility has been intense. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled since late February, a move that would normally put serious pressure on earnings.

Fuel hedging strategy

But Virgin Australia isn't exposed in the way many feared. The airline has leaned heavily on its fuel hedging strategy, and it's paying off. Around 92% of its Brent crude exposure and 71% of refining margin exposure are hedged for the remainder of FY26. That provides a significant buffer against rising costs.

As a result, the expected increase in fuel costs for the second half is now estimated at $30–40 million above earlier forecasts. That's manageable, not catastrophic.

Fine-tuning fares and capacity

And the company isn't standing still. Virgin has been actively adjusting fares and fine-tuning capacity to respond to market conditions. Domestic capacity is now expected to rise 1% in the second half, although it will dip slightly in the fourth quarter as the airline stays flexible. That ability to adapt is key.

Importantly, the company also confirmed it has continued fuel supply assurance through to May, easing concerns about potential disruptions during a volatile period.

What next for Virgin Australia shares?

Looking ahead, the outlook remains steady, at least for now.

Virgin says its FY26 expectations hold, assuming no major shocks to demand, fuel prices, or supply. For early FY27, hedging remains strong on crude exposure, though less so on refining margins, and management is keeping a close eye on conditions.

If volatility persists, capacity adjustments remain on the table.

Foolish Takeaway

Today's rally is all about relief. Investors in Virgin Australia shares were bracing for worse. Instead, they got confirmation that Virgin Australia is managing through the turbulence, with hedging, pricing power, and operational flexibility all playing a role.

After a tough run, that was enough to send the shares flying higher.

The post Here's why Virgin Australia shares are flying 7% higher today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Virgin Australia report?

• FY26 financial guidance unchanged; 2HFY26 underlying EBIT and EBIT margin both expected to be higher than 2HFY25
• Group leverage at 0.8x net debt/underlying EBITDA, below its 1–2x target range
• Liquidity position of $1.5 billion at 31 March 2026
• Fuel costs of $554.7 million for 1HFY26, representing 21% of total operating expenses
• 2HFY26 RASK (revenue per available seat kilometre) growth expected at approximately 5%, up from prior 3–4% guidance

What else do investors need to know?

Virgin Australia has responded to fuel price volatility by adjusting fares and domestic capacity, with 2HFY26 capacity now expected to rise 1% but fall 1% in the fourth quarter. Strong fuel hedging means the group is protected from most rises, with 92% of Brent crude and 71% of refining margin exposure hedged for the remainder of FY26.

Although jet fuel prices have more than doubled since late February, Virgin Australia expects the increase in fuel costs for 2HFY26 to be about $30–40 million above earlier forecasts. The airline reports continued supply assurance from its fuel suppliers for operations into May.

What's next for Virgin Australia?

Virgin Australia says its outlook for FY26 remains solid, assuming no major changes to demand, jet fuel prices, or fuel supply in the near term. For early FY27, the company has continued strong hedging (93% of Brent crude but only 15% of refining margin), and reviews are underway to adjust capacity if volatility persists. The business remains confident in its flexible cost and hedging strategies to navigate uncertainty.

Virgin Australia share price snapshot

Over the past 12 months, Virgin Australia shares have declined 27%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 15% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Virgin Australia's FY26 update: Hedging cushions rising fuel costs appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) airline stock, and chief competitor to Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN), have struggled in 2026.

Indeed, at Thursday's close, Virgin Australia shares are now down 34% year to date. That trails the 18% losses posted by Qantas shares this calendar year, and is well behind the 1.55% loss on the ASX 200.

The stock is also now trading below its initial public offering (IPO), with investors who bought on the first day of trading nursing even steeper losses.

Investors able to take part in Virgin Australia's IPO picked up shares for $2.90 apiece. The ASX 300 airline stock began trading on the ASX on 24 June. Shares opened on the day at $3.12 and closed trading for $3.23 each.

A lot of the losses in 2026 were delivered in March following the onset of the Iran war. With fuel prices surging and some travel routes facing potential disruptions, Virgin Australia stock plunged 23.6% in the month just past.

So, with shares having lost almost a third of their value in 2026, is it time to buy the dip?

Should you buy Virgin Australia shares today?

Catapult Wealth's Blake Halligan recently analysed the outlook for the ASX 300 airline stock (courtesy of The Bull).

"The Australian airline delivered a strong result in the first half of fiscal year 2026, with underlying earnings before interest and tax increasing by 11.7% to $490 million," Halligan said. "Revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) was up 6.4%."

He added:

The group's transformation program delivered more than $200 million in gross benefits. The company has now exhausted tax losses and will begin paying tax, with franking credits at $94 million.

But with the company facing potentially increasing costs, Halligan isn't ready to pull the trigger yet, with a hold recommendation on Virgin Australia shares.

He concluded, "While demand and yields remain supportive, rising expenses suggest a balanced hold stance."

What's the latest from the ASX 300 airline stock?

Virgin Australia reported its half-year results on 27 February.

Highlights included a 9.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for the six months to $3.32 billion.

But Virgin Australia shares came under some pressure, closing down 0.3% on the day, with statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $341 million, down 27.9%, primarily due to prior period tax benefits.

Commenting on the company's performance on the day, Virgin Australia CEO Dave Emerson said:

The group's continued strong performance clearly demonstrates that our constant focus on transformation and innovation is not only delivering strong financial outcomes but strengthens our ability to remain a robust competitor for years to come.

The post Down 34% in 2026, are Virgin Australia shares a good buy today? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Well, if you are, let's see what analysts are saying about the popular shares in this article, courtesy of The Bull.

Are they buys, holds, or sells? Let's find out:

Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST)

This gold miner's shares have been named as a buy by the team at MPC Markets.

It highlights that while it owns one of the best gold assets in the world, it has been disappointed with its operational performance. It explains:

The gold company has been punished for downgrading gold production. Mechanical and equipment issues at its flagship Kalgoorlie operation have been frustrating, and the market has lost patience. However, Northern Star still owns one of the best gold assets in the world and its long term reserve base is intact.

The conflict in Iran has also generated indiscriminate selling in gold miners that history tends to show as a buying opportunity. Operational problems are temporary and we expect the gold price to improve moving forward.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

MPC Markets is a lot more positive on the radiopharmaceuticals company and has named it as a buy this week.

It is feeling optimistic that Telix may finally be granted FDA approval for Pixclara this year. It commented:

The company's prostate imaging agent is generating strong sales in the United States. The near term story is about brain cancer imaging. The company recently re-submitted its drug application to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Pixclara, an imaging agent for a particularly aggressive form of brain cancer.

The FDA has given it priority status, and Telix has gone through a formal meeting to address every question raised in its previous application. In our view, a re-submission isn't a setback, but the last step before approval. We believe the market isn't pricing in the benefits of a potentially successful FDA outcome.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)

Over at Catapult Wealth, it has put a hold rating on this airline operator's shares.

While it was pleased with its strong performance during the first half, it is concerned about rising expenses. It explains:

The Australian airline delivered a strong result in the first half of fiscal year 2026, with underlying earnings before interest and tax increasing by 11.7 per cent to $490 million. Revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) was up 6.4 per cent. The group's transformation program delivered more than $200 million in gross benefits.

The company has now exhausted tax losses and will begin paying tax, with franking credits at $94 million. While demand and yields remain supportive, rising expenses suggest a balanced hold stance.

The post Buy, hold, sell: Northern Star, Telix, and Virgin Australia shares appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The Australian airline company's share price has struggled recently after news that ongoing conflict in the Middle East will severely tighten jet fuel supply. Reports are that Virgin Australia's partnership with Qatar Airways is also being tested as the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect aviation routes. This also dented investor sentiment earlier this month.

Qatar Airways currently owns 25% of Virgin Australia and provides aircraft and crew for several services under a wet lease arrangement.

For the year to date, the shares are down 27% and they're down 21.4% over the year.

But the latest uptick suggests that Virgin Australia shares could have finally reached the bottom and are beginning to ascend.

What is pushing Virgin Australia shares higher?

There hasn't been any price-sensitive news out of Virgin Australia this week to explain the sudden share price reversal. This suggests the rebound is driven by broad market sentiment.

Virgin Australia recently raised its domestic airfares in response to rising jet fuel costs, which could help maintain or even boost revenue. 

At the same time, the airline's share price has fallen heavily in the past month, by almost 20%, due to concerns about how tightened fuel supply will affect Australia's travel companies. The shares bottomed to an all-time low on the 20th of March, which sparked interest from bargain-hunting investors.

Another positive which has possibly supported the share price increase is a jump in demand for domestic travel. With many international flights postponed or cancelled, many Australians are refocusing their attention to short-haul domestic travel instead. 

Will the ASX travel stock's share price keep climbing?

TradingView data shows that seven out of eight analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Virgin Australia shares. One more has a hold rating.

The average target price is $3.86, which implies a potential 51.5% upside at the time of writing. Although some are even more bullish and expect Virgin Australia shares to soar 66.7% higher to $4.25 over the next 12 months.

The post Virgin Australia shares fly 13% higher: Is this the start of the rebound we've all been waiting for? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

How does tight oil supply affect Qantas and Virgin Australia?

The largest operating cost for airlines is jet fuel, which is refined from crude oil. 

Australia produces very little of its own refined fuel and instead imports more than 90% of the fuel it uses. This means local prices closely follow global oil prices and currency movements. 

So when oil prices rise due to tight supply or geopolitical tensions, the cost of jet fuel also increases. 

If tight oil supply continues and jet fuel prices climb higher, airlines like Qantas and Virgin Australia face higher operating costs, which can pressure profits and potentially weigh their share prices.

Airlines could increase ticket prices or add fuel surcharges to help recover some costs, but if raised too high it could also reduce travel demand.

What has happened to Qantas and Virgin Australia shares?

Qantas shares are 0.64% higher at the time of writing on Tuesday morning, trading at $8.62 a piece. But for the year to date, the airline's stock is down 17.79%. Since conflict in the Middle East ramped up at the beginning of the month, Qantas shares have shed 13.57% of their value.

Virgin Australia's share price movements show an almost identical pattern. At the time of writing, the airline stock is 0.95% higher at $2.66 a piece, but it is 23.71% lower year to date. Virgin Australia shares have tumbled 15.45% in March alone.

It's not only global oil supply concerns that have created headwinds for the two major airline businesses. News that Qantas has reached an agreement to settle the class action regarding flight credits during the global COVID pandemic has also dampened investor confidence.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that Virgin Australia's partnership with Qatar Airways is being tested as the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect aviation routes. Qatar Airways currently owns 25% of Virgin Australia and provides aircraft and crew for several services under a wet lease arrangement.

What can we expect next?

As the market stands, analysts remain optimistic about the outlook for Qantas and Virgin Australia shares, with most tipping strong upside ahead.

TradingView data shows that 12 out of 15 analysts still have a buy or strong buy rating on Qantas shares. The average target price is $12.29, which implies a potential 42.73% upside at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, six out of eight analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Virgin Australia shares. The average target price is $3.89, implying a significant 46.91% upside at the time of writing.

The post What's next for Virgin Australia, Qantas shares as fuel prices surge? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

At the time of writing, the Virgin Australia share price is down 2.56% to $2.66. The stock has had a difficult run recently and is now down about 24% since the start of 2026.

Here's what investors need to know.

Middle East conflict disrupts flights

According to The Australian, Virgin Australia's partnership with Qatar Airways is being tested as the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect aviation routes.

Qatar Airways currently owns 25% of Virgin Australia and provides aircraft and crew for several services under a wet lease arrangement.

However, the Gulf carrier has reportedly cancelled all of the wet lease flights it operates on behalf of Virgin while the conflict continues.

As a result, daily services from Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, and Melbourne to Doha have not been operating since fighting escalated in the region. Virgin has extended cancellations through to at least Thursday.

These routes form a key part of Virgin's strategy to expand its international network following its return to the ASX in 2025.

Qatar Airways hit hardest by cancellations

Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium show that Qatar Airways has been the airline most affected in the Gulf region since the conflict intensified.

The data shows 2,479 flight cancellations out of 2,669 scheduled services, impacting an estimated 741,000 travellers.

The situation has also affected airline operations across the wider region.

Between February 28 and March 13, more than 52,000 flights were cancelled, affecting an estimated 6 million passengers.

Several airlines are now operating under restricted schedules while governments review airspace safety conditions.

Virgin Australia share price under pressure

The latest developments appear to be weighing on investor sentiment toward Virgin Australia shares.

The airline's stock has fallen roughly 19% since early March, leaving it well below the levels seen shortly after its relisting last year.

Virgin Australia returned to the ASX in June 2025, when private equity owner Bain Capital sold a 30% stake to investors at $2.90 per share.

Today's price of $2.66 puts the stock below that listing level.

By comparison, rival Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) has also declined recently, although the pullback has been smaller.

Travel demand shifting

Despite the disruption to Middle East travel routes, broader demand for flights appears to remain resilient.

Online travel group Webjet Group Ltd (ASX: WJL) said booking data shows travellers are increasingly shifting toward destinations closer to home.

Bookings to locations such as Ho Chi Minh City, Bali, Tokyo, and Manila have been rising, while domestic destinations, including the Gold Coast, are also seeing increased interest.

This suggests that while geopolitical tensions may temporarily affect certain routes, overall travel demand remains relatively strong.

However, the near-term focus will likely remain on managing operational issues linked to its international partnership network.

The post Virgin Australia shares slide again as global turmoil rattles key partnership appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Four ASX shares that are falling more than most today are listed below. Here's why they are dropping:

Regis Resources Ltd (ASX: RRL)

The Regis Resources share price is down 9% to $7.00. Investors have been selling this gold miner's shares following a pullback in the gold price. Traders have been selling gold amid concerns that sky-high oil prices could lead to higher inflation and force central banks to hike interest rates. It isn't just Regis Resources shares that are falling today. The S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Gold index is down 4.2% at the time of writing.

Strike Energy Ltd (ASX: STX)

The Strike Energy share price is down 3% to 10.7 cents. This morning, the energy company advised that the Western Australian Economic Regulation Authority (ERA) has finalised its Determination for the Benchmark Reserve Capacity Price (BRCP) for the 2028/29 Capacity Year at $488,500 per MW per annum. While this is a 35% increase on the 2027/28 benchmark of $360,700 per MW per year, it seems that some investors were expecting an even larger increase.

Telix Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ASX: TLX)

The Telix Pharmaceuticals share price is down 3% to $10.96. This is despite the radiopharmaceuticals company revealing that it was optimistic that the resubmission of a new drug application (NDA) for its brain cancer imaging candidate TLX101-Px would be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Telix's chief medical officer, Dr David N. Cade, said: "We appreciate the FDA's recognition of the critical unmet need to improve the diagnosis and management of glioma, particularly in the posttreatment setting. Our resubmission is supported by an extensive and compelling data set – particularly so for an orphan indication. We are grateful to our global clinical collaborators, who share our commitment to ensuring patients in the U.S. can benefit from this important patient management tool."

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)

The Virgin Australia share price is down 2.5% to $2.66. This may have been driven by concerns that rising oil prices could weigh on the profitability of the airline. Virgin Australia has also been struggling with its flights through to the Middle East with Qatar Airways experiencing consistent cancellations. The company's shares are now down almost 20% since this time last month.

The post Why Regis Resources, Strike Energy, Telix, and Virgin Australia shares are falling today appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What did Virgin Australia report?

• Revenue: $3.32 billion, up 9.3% on 1HFY25
• Underlying EBIT: $490 million, up 11.7%
• Underlying NPAT: $279 million, up 20.7%
• Statutory NPAT: $341 million, down 27.9% due to prior period tax benefits
• Underlying EBIT margin: 14.8%, up 40bps
• Net debt to underlying EBITDA: 0.9x, below target range

What else do investors need to know?

Virgin Australia's transformation program delivered over $200 million in gross benefits, partially offsetting inflationary headwinds like airport charges. The company's strong financial position is supported by $1.4 billion in liquidity and a net debt position well below its target range, even as it plans to purchase more aircraft in the second half.

Operationally, the airline achieved a domestic on-time departure rate of 72.6% and maintained a completion rate ahead of its competitors. Customer satisfaction continues to rise, with a three-point increase in Net Promoter Score and over 700,000 new Velocity members added during the half.

What did Virgin Australia management say?

Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director Dave Emerson said:

The Group's continued strong performance clearly demonstrates that our constant focus on transformation and innovation is not only delivering strong financial outcomes but strengthens our ability to remain a robust competitor for years to come.

Virgin Australia is proud to play a critical role in delivering choice and value for Australian travellers, and we are laser-focused on serving our core customer groups of premium leisure, small and medium enterprises, and value-conscious corporates. Through careful cost management and decision making, we are striking the right balance between value, flexibility and quality, and our customers are responding well.

What's next for Virgin Australia?

The airline expects demand for air travel to stay strong, with plans to increase domestic capacity by 2–3% in the second half of FY26 and 3% in early FY27. Virgin Australia targets continued EBIT growth, ongoing benefits from its transformation program, and growth in the Velocity loyalty business.

Investments include further aircraft purchases, with capex of $850–950 million anticipated for FY26, and much of the fleet will be upgraded with Wi-Fi. Ongoing discipline in capacity and cost management aims to keep the balance sheet strong and support future shareholder returns.

Virgin Australia share price snapshot

For the year to date, Virgin Australia shares have declined 9%, trailing the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which has risen 5% over the same period.

View Original Announcement

The post Virgin Australia posts 1HFY26 earnings appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Transurban Group (ASX: TCL)

Transurban, while arguably not the most exciting stock, is a consistent one. It owns and operates major toll roads. It also holds long-term government contracts to finance and build major roads, which also cover toll operations. This cash flow and revenue predictability has seen it become popular amongst investors.

It stands to benefit from some solid structural tailwinds too. With major roads playing a critical role as metro populations expand, Transurban is well positioned to deliver.

On the flipside, road projects often face delays and cost blow-outs. For example, Transurban delivered Melbourne's long awaited West Gate Tunnel in 2025 at a cost of $10.2 billion against a plan for 2022 delivery at $5.5 billion, with Transurban covering $2 billion of the additional cost. That said, Transurban has a history of disciplined cash flow management that has enabled it to wear one-off costs like this.

Its most recent results demonstrate why it's worth considering. It delivered $2.02 billion in proportional total revenue (up 6%) and $343 million in statutory profit after tax. In addition, its dividend guidance for 2026 is $0.69 per share, up 6.2% on 2025, which should keep investors content.

Is Transurban a buy?

For me, it is. At current prices, Transurban isn't likely to skyrocket your portfolio. Some analysts are predicting a small upside right now, but nothing to get excited about. However, it is likely to keep delivering stable returns and measured growth for long-term investors.

Aurizon Holdings Ltd (ASX: AZJ)

Aurizon is a national rail-freight operator, hauling bulk commodities and freight for industries such as mining and manufacturing. It operates Australia's largest coal rail system, the 2,670km Central Queensland Coal Network. The network offers critical mine to port transportation to over 50 mines in the region.

Its significant footprint in the mining industry includes a partnership with BHP Copper SA to deliver an integrated rail, road, and port solution that will shift copper transport from road to rail along the Pimba to Port Adelaide corridor.

Aurizon delivered some stronger-than-expected results in HY26, including 16% growth in underlying net profit after tax and EBITDA growth across all its business units. Its bulk business saw the highest growth at 39%, largely driven by increased rail volumes and the first freight moved under the BHP Copper SA contract.

Where I'm caught on this one is valuation. With current share prices around the $4 mark and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of circa 23, I think there is too much risk of downside. I'm also cautious about its heavy exposure to coal mining, while noting that it has begun to diversify in recent years.

Is Aurizon a buy?

Right now, it's a wait-and-watch story, in my opinion. I don't think it is delivering the returns to justify its present valuation. But I think it will keep delivering growth, so I'm adding it to the watchlist. If the share price falls, it could be a winner.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)

Domestic and international carrier, Virgin Australia, returned to the ASX in June 2025, after delisting in 2020 amidst the COVID crisis. Its Q1 FY26 update reported domestic capacity uplift of 5% on the prior corresponding period. It also reaffirmed that revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) should meet expected growth of 3% to 5% in HY26.

But there are potential pitfalls ahead. While Virgin Australia enjoys a duopoly on major domestic routes across Australia, it doesn't inoculate it from economic headwinds. Although Australians love to travel, as budgets continue to tighten, changes in discretionary spending could prove challenging. Additionally, the relatively thin margins in the airline industry leave it sensitive to operating cost changes, from fuel to labour.

As we await HY26 results on Friday, this one has me thinking. I'm uncomfortable with its more recent corporate history – multiple restructures, ownership changes, and strategic resets. And I am not sure even great results would be enough to convince me just yet.

Is Virgin Australia a buy?

For me, it's a not a buy right now. Some analysts have said they see upside at current prices, however, so I may be going against the grain on this one. But I think Virgin needs longer to show it has truly recovered from a challenging period.

The post Planes, trains and automobiles: Which of these ASX transport stocks has fuel in the tank? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

It's been a volatile few months for the airline, though. The shares crashed 20% from October to November last year, and then recovered 18.5% in December. The share price crashed again, this time by around 15%, throughout the first 6 weeks of the year, and now they're on their way back up once again.

Over the past week, Virgin shares have jumped 10.53% and they're now 13.97% higher over the year.

What is pushing Virgin Australia shares higher?

There is no price-sensitive news out of the travel company this week to explain the uptick. But after a 15% drop between December and earlier this month, it's likely that investors have identified a buying opportunity. 

Virgin is set to deliver its first interim result since being relisted on the ASX in June last year, on the 27th of February.

And analysts are optimistic that the announcement will be good news.

Since its relisting on the ASX 200 in June this year, the airline has repositioned itself under a simpler, leaner business model, shedding many of its old inefficiencies. And I like what the business has done. 

The team at Jarden recently said that, while it is too early for the company to start paying dividends, it expects solid results later this month. The broker said the airline's fundamentals are strong for the near term.  

Are Virgin Australia shares a buy, sell or hold?

At the current share price, I think the airline's shares are a bargain. Analysts are mostly bullish on the stock's robust upside this year.

TradingView data shows that 5 out of 7 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Virgin Australia shares. The average target price is $3.95 for the next 12 months, which implies a potential upside of 19.27% at the time of writing.

Although others think the upside could be anywhere between 10.14% and 27.27% from the current share price.

Jarden has a $4 target price on the shares. The team at Ord Minnett are also impressed with the company's near-term outlook. The broker has a buy rating and $4 target price on Virgin Australia shares.

The post Virgin Australia shares fly 10% higher: Time to buy, sell or hold? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Looking at Qantas first, the Jarden team notes that the share price has underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) since reporting its FY25 result, "following concerns around the earnings outlook from weaker demand and higher oil prices''.

A win-win in "rational" sector

But the Jarden team says that according to their analysis, the Australian aviation sector "remains in the best competitive rationality setting'' for the past 20 years or so.

With this in mind, we think any near-term demand weakness can have its impact on operating earnings moderated by capacity rationality (lower growth) and yield management (improved pricing). We see the 1H26 result as a key catalyst for the Qantas share price to outperform near term. As a result, we reiterate our Buy rating and maintain our 12-month $12.70 target price.

Jarden is expecting a dividend yield of 3.1% from Qantas, and if its price target is achieved, this would represent a 24.2% return for investors.

The Jarden team said Qantas had so far only modestly changed its capacity settings, reducing them by about 1%, to reflect a changing demand environment, "and focus, we think, on load factor and yield preservation''.

From here, we see the revenue available per seat kilometre outlook as potentially more driven by ticket price movements than by load factor changes. Importantly, this could also provide additional support for earnings through 2H26E, should the fuel cost environment overall prove better than feared.

The Jarden team also noted that jet fuel prices have fallen about 47% since November.

Looking into 2H26, we see scope for adjustments to fuel price expectations, which could provide near-term upward support for earnings estimates for Qantas, all else remaining equal.

Qantas is expected to report its first-half results on February 26.

The company was worth $15.87 billion at the close of trade on Wednesday.

Virgin also cheap at current levels

Jarden also has a bullish price target on shares in Virgin, with a target price of $4, compared with $3.29 currently.

Virgin is set to deliver its first interim result since being relisted on the ASX, with that to happen on February 27.

Jarden said they believed it was too early for the company to start paying dividends, but nonetheless, they expected a solid result.

We see the fundamentals as remaining strong for Virgin Australia in the near term and maintain our Overweight rating and lift our 12-month target price from $3.90 to $4.00 following changes in the Virgin share price impacting its capital structure.

The post Which airline could deliver almost 25% returns? See what the analysts say appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

In Australia, retirement spending expectations are commonly broken into two broad categories: modest and comfortable.

These aren't marketing terms. They are practical benchmarks designed to show what different superannuation balances can realistically support in day-to-day life.

So, what does your superannuation actually buy you in retirement? Let's break it down.

What is a modest retirement?

A modest retirement is best described as a lifestyle that covers the basics, with a little left over for simple pleasures.

According to the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA), a modest retirement allows retirees to meet essential living costs. This includes housing-related expenses, groceries, utilities, transport, and basic health insurance. There is room for some leisure activities, but they tend to be low-cost and infrequent.

This might mean occasional meals out, limited domestic travel, and a fairly tight discretionary budget. Overseas holidays, frequent entertainment, and major lifestyle upgrades are generally off the table, unfortunately.

In today's dollars, ASFA estimates that both singles and couples need $100,000 in superannuation, combined with the Age Pension, to fund a modest retirement.

For many Australians, this level of retirement is achievable, but it often requires careful budgeting and reliance on the Age Pension as a core income source.

How much superannuation for a comfortable retirement?

A comfortable retirement paints a very different picture.

ASFA defines a comfortable retirement as one that enables retirees to enjoy a higher standard of living, not just get by. This includes good-quality private health insurance with Medibank Private Ltd (ASX: MPL) or NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF), reliable transport, regular leisure activities, dining out, and the ability to travel both domestically and internationally with Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) or Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN).

Importantly, it also allows retirees to absorb unexpected expenses without stress, whether that is medical costs, home maintenance, or helping family members.

To support this lifestyle, ASFA estimates that a single person needs around $595,000 in super, while a couple needs approximately $690,000 combined. This assumes they own their home outright.

At this level, superannuation becomes the primary income source, with the Age Pension playing a smaller or supplementary role.

Foolish takeaway

Your superannuation doesn't just fund retirement, it defines your options.

A modest retirement covers the essentials and relies heavily on the Age Pension. A comfortable retirement offers flexibility, security, and the freedom to enjoy life without constant budgeting.

Understanding the difference helps you set realistic goals, measure your progress, and decide whether you need to make changes now, while there is still time for compounding to do its work.

The post Modest vs comfortable retirement: What your superannuation really buys you appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The two businesses are closely aligned, and both benefit from upticks in demand for travel and tourism. But in terms of outlook over the next 12 months, there is one clear winner. Here's the travel airline stock I'd buy and the one I'd sell.

I'd sell Qantas shares

Aviation heavyweight Qantas Airways has dominated the Australian domestic aviation market for decades. It currently accounts for around 60% of the domestic market, and it's still growing.

Qantas is adding capacity to its routes to mainland US, New Zealand, Singapore, and Hawaii. Jetstar is adding capacity to its routes to Bali, New Zealand, Thailand, South Korea, and Singapore. Jetstar is also entering the Philippines.

It looks like the company's operational momentum is improving, but I'm concerned that the airline still has its work cut out to be able to grow at the rate it expects. Cost pressures are still a risk, demand for travel can change quickly, and competition is heating up from rival Virgin and other airline newcomers.

When it comes to Qantas stock, its share price has been relatively volatile this year. At the time of writing, its shares are 1.81% higher at $9.82 a piece, but over the past 12 months, they have fluctuated anywhere between $7.55 and $12.62 a piece. For the year, the shares are 10.64% higher.

UBS has a buy rating on the business, with a price target of $11.50. At the time of writing, this implies that a potential 17.1% upside is ahead.

But the team at Sanlam Private Wealth has put a sell rating on the shares. The broker is concerned about the airline's earnings growth outlook and thinks it is vulnerable to possible downgrades.

I'd buy Virgin Australia shares

Since its relisting on the ASX 200 in June this year, the airline has repositioned itself under a simpler, leaner business model, shedding many of its old inefficiencies. And I like what the business has done. 

The Virgin Australia share price is storming higher in lunchtime trade on Thursday. At the time of writing, the shares are 4.84% higher at $3.25 a piece. The latest uptick has helped recover gains lost over the past year. The shares are now 9.62% higher than this time last year.

Analysts are optimistic that the aviation stock will take off soon. The team at Ord Minnett recently said it is impressed with the company's near-term outlook. The broker has a buy rating and $4 target price on Virgin Australia shares. At the time of writing, that implies a potential 23.1% upside ahead for the stock.

Data shows that some analysts are even more bullish. Out of 7 analysts, 5 have a buy or strong buy rating, and the maximum target price is $4.20. That implies that the shares could increase another 30.03%.

The post Virgin Australia versus Qantas shares: One I'd buy and one I'd sell appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Two that have fared well and have been given buy ratings are named below. Here's what the broker is saying about them:

Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN)

Ord Minnett was pleased with news that this mining and mining services company has formed a joint venture with POSCO Holdings for its lithium assets.

It notes that the Korean giant will pay US$765 million (A$1.2 billion) in cash for a 30% stake in the joint venture. This values its remaining stakes in the Wodgina and Mt Marion operations at ~$4 billion, versus a consensus valuation of $2.8 billion previously.

It also implies a long-term spodumene price of US$1600 a tonne, which is comfortably above market expectations. Commenting on the ASX 300 share, the broker said;

Breaking the $4 billion down equates to around $20 per Mineral Resources share, up from the prior market valuation of $14 a share. ‍Mineral Resources will still be the operator of Wodgina and Mt Marion as per current deals with US company Albermarle and Hong Kong-based Ganfeng Lithium, neither of which have any pre-emptive rights over the POSCO deal.

Post the deal, we make no changes to our FY26 EPS estimate, but our FY27 forecast falls 17.4% to incorporate the effect of the sale and our FY28 number rises 1.1%. We maintain a price target of $55.00 on Mineral Resources and reiterate our Buy recommendation.

As mentioned above, Ord Minnett has a buy rating and $55.00 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 15% from its last close price.

Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN)

Another ASX 300 share that Ord Minnett is positive on is airline operator Virgin Australia.

The broker was pleased to see the company reiterate its guidance for growth in revenue per available seat kilometre (RASK) of 3% to 5% in the first half of FY 2026. It notes that this is being "underpinned by strong demand and operational performance."

As a result, the broker has increased confidence in the company's outlook. It said:

The trading update gave Ord Minnett confidence the near-term outlook is sound, given Virgin's hedging program, which incorporates the jet fuel spread, means recent rising fuel prices will have little effect on FY26 earnings. Post FY26, we expect higher fuel costs will be mostly, but not all, offset by management of the RASK metric, i.e. some mix of higher ticket prices and reduced capacity. ‍

Post the trading update, we have nudged our FY26 EPS estimate down 0.3%, while our FY27 and FY28 forecasts are cut by 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, to incorporate the impact of fuel costs, which leads us to trim our target price to $4.00 from $4.10.

Ord Minnett has a buy rating and $4.00 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of 32% for investors over the next 12 months.

The post Ord Minnett says these ASX 300 shares could rise 15% to 30% appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

The team at Ord Minnett have provided fresh guidance on both.

Virgin Australia has been operating in Australia for many years. However, it recently returned to the ASX when it completed its long-awaited initial public offering (IPO) in June. 

After experiencing some volatility, its stock price is now essentially back where it started, closing yesterday at $2.96 each. 

With such a short span on the ASX, it can be difficult for investors to pinpoint fair value, despite its household name. 

However, the team at Ord Minnett have an optimistic view that Virgin shares can take off. 

Here's the latest guidance out of the broker. 

Near-term confidence for Virgin

Ord Minnett said a key focus for Virgin will be how it manages the significantly higher jet fuel spreads.

Recent data shows average global jet fuel prices jumped circa 8% in the last two weeks of October alone. 

The refiners' jet fuel crack spread – the price difference between crude oil and refined products – in October was up almost 40% on the crack spread in September.

‍However, a recent trading update from Virgin Australia gave Ord Minnett confidence that the near-term outlook is sound, given Virgin's hedging program. The program incorporates the jet fuel spread. This means recent rising fuel prices will have little effect on FY26 earnings. 

Post FY26, Ord Minnett expects higher fuel costs will be mostly offset by management of the RASK metric. This could be a mix of higher ticket prices and reduced capacity.

Post the trading update, we have nudged our FY26 EPS estimate down 0.3%, while our FY27 and FY28 forecasts are cut by 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, to incorporate the impact of fuel costs, which leads us to trim our target price to $4.00 from $4.10.

From yesterday's closing price of $2.96, this updated price target of $4 indicates an impressive upside of 35.14%. 

Modest upside for BHP shares

Ord Minnett also sees value in BHP shares. 

The mining giant is currently navigating an appeal due to its involvement in the 2015 Fundao dam failure in Brazil at its Samarco project, which it owns in a joint venture with Brazilian company Vale. 

However, Ord Minnett noted trials that are not expected to be finalised before 2028 or 2029. Furthermore, any damages would also be mitigated by claims already paid out. 

Vale and BHP are nearly halfway through the US$32 billion settlement, leaving BHP's remaining share to pay at circa US$9 billion.

Ord Minnett already incorporates a provision of US$6.1 billion for Samarco in our model, so we have made no changes to our earnings estimates or valuations post the UK court decision.

Despite all this, Ord Minnett has maintained its accumulate recommendation on BHP shares with a target price of $45.

Based on yesterday's closing price, this indicates an upside of 10.78% for BHP shares. 

‍

The post What is Ord Minnetts' view on Virgin Australia and BHP shares? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Whether you're just starting your investment journey or adding to an existing portfolio, here are three ASX-listed stocks that could be worth your attention right now.

Life360 Inc (ASX: 360)

The Life360 share price closed 1.45% lower on Tuesday, at $44.94 a piece. But the slide has done nothing to dampen the stock's success story over the past 19 months.

Over the past year, the share price has surged 137.78% higher, but in the 19 months since February 2024, that increase is a whopping 506.5%.

Life360 is an incredibly popular United States-based software development company that is dual-listed on the Nasdaq and the ASX. 

Thanks to its business strength, Life360 has posted some impressive results. In its FY25 results, posted in mid-August, the company revealed a 36% year-on-year surge in revenue, and its EBITDA rocketed 85%. The ASX tech share lifted 13.7% within two days of the report.

The company has also been expanding its offering. It is set to introduce pet tracking features this year, followed by an elderly-focused solution in 2026—both of which could open up new revenue streams.

Analysts are positive on the undervalued AI stock. According to TradingView data, 8 out of 9 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on Life360 shares and a max target price of $51.38. At the time of writing, that gives investors a potential upside of as high as 14.33% over the next 12 months.

Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN)

Aviation heavyweight Qantas Airways has dominated the Australian domestic aviation market for decades. And although Virgin Australia Holdings Ltd (ASX: VGN) is carving out its share of the market, and Koala Airlines announced it would re-enter the market, Qantas will continue to hold most of the cards for some time to come.

Qantas shares finished in the green at the close of the ASX on Tuesday, up 1.13% to $11.62 a piece. Over the year, the airline's shares are 69.14% higher.

And there's more to come, too. TradingView data shows that 10 out of 15 analysts hold a buy or a strong buy rating on the stock, with a max target price of $14.45. That's a potential upside of 24.35% at the time of writing.

Nick Scali Ltd (ASX: NCK)

The furniture retailer is another well-performing stock with potential for a strong upside ahead. 

Nick Scali shares finished 1.08% lower at the close of the ASX on Tuesday, at $32.72 a piece. But over the past month, the share price has jumped 23.22% higher thanks to some strong financial results.

Over the longer term, the retailer's shares have performed even better. The share price is 56.57% higher than it was 12 months ago and a staggering 181.04% higher than 5 years ago. Those are some big figures!

Going forward, analysts are positive on the stock, albeit price growth is expected to slow from the huge gains we've seen recently. TradingView data shows that 6 out of 9 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the shares, and a max upside of $24.40, which represents a potential 2.87% upside at the time of writing.

Newmont Corp (ASX: NEM)

The American gold miner, with joint ventures in Australia, saw its share price climb higher on Tuesday. At the close of the ASX, it reached $116.10 per share, up 0.66% for the day. 

What's even more impressive is that Newmont's share price has surged 69.54% over the past six months and 49.79% over the year.

Analysts see plenty of growth potential for the miner, too. Ord Minnett recently said some of its assets are running below optimum levels, but the right execution of investments could drive strong earnings growth.

TradingView data shows 16 out of 25 analysts have a buy or strong buy rating on the stock. The max target price for Newmont shares is $158.90, which represents a robust potential upside of 36.86% for investors at the time of writing.

Where will you put your $5,000?

The post 4 Australian stocks to buy right now with $5,000 appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

What is Koala Airlines, and where did it come from?

The new budget airline carrier plans to launch and begin operations in Australia in late 2026. 

Koala Airlines acquired Desert Air Safaris Pty Ltd, an Australian air tours and charter flights operator for Australia, PNG, and the Pacific Islands, in 2019. Koala Airlines inherited a valid Air Operator Certificate (AOC) via its acquisition which is currently valid through May 2027.

The airline says it plans to do things differently to other budget airlines that have previously tried, and failed, to break into Australia's aviation market.

Rather than competing on ultra-low fares (a tactic which failed for Bonza and Rex Airlines, which went into liquidation and voluntary administration in 2024), Koala plans to focus on niche markets and customer trust.

"While many new low-cost carriers have entered the market since 1990 and focused solely on offering cheaper fares, almost entirely leading to unsustainable competition, Koala is taking a more innovative route," it said on its website.

"Our goal is to carve out a unique niche that enhances the industry landscape without disrupting existing standards by creating a lasting impact on the industry", Koala says.

"At the forefront of our strategy is Koala Tech, a groundbreaking technology platform designed to revolutionise the aviation industry. This innovative platform seamlessly integrates a range of aviation business applications, enabling comprehensive automation and harnessing the full power of artificial intelligence."

Up, up, and away

Koala Airlines said it is finalising negotiations to acquire a fleet that will enable its AOC to be upgraded with the new aircraft type. 

"This step is crucial in solidifying our operational capabilities and readiness to serve our customers with the highest standards," it says on its website.

Koala Airlines chief executive Bill Astling has responded to critics who dismissed the airline as an unrealistic venture that wouldn't get off the ground. 

"What we don't have on the AOC is the aircraft type, because Desert Air operated a lot of smaller aircraft," he told The Australian.

"But we do have one, despite what people might think."

He said Koala Airlines had also "secured aircraft", but he would not say what type or where the planes would come from.

There was a need for confidentiality to "look after certain shareholders who don't want this thing broadcast all over the place," he added.

"If I'm opening a store I'm not going to tell you what I'm going to sell 18 months before I start, or even what's in the store," he said.

Qantas, Virgin holding ground

Qantas and Virgin remain dominant in Australia's aviation market, backed by strong fleets, travel networks, loyalty programs, financial scale, and minimal domestic competition.

The Qantas Group, which also includes Jetstar, currently accounts for around 60% of domestic passengers while Virgin accounts for around 35%.

Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) chief executive Graham Turner told Sunrise on Tuesday that while the Australian market is ready for a third airline, any competition would need serious financial backing. 

"They will need some investors with very deep pockets, I don't think there's any doubt about that," he said.

"We've had basically two airlines for as long as I can remember. The Australian domestic market is quite a prolific one. It's a big market, even by world standards. I think Melbourne to Sydney is the fifth busiest route in the world.

"I think they can (succeed) but the financial aspects of the player will need to be very, very strong."

The Qantas share price is in the green today, up 0.37% and changing hands at $10.93 a piece at the time of writing. The share price is 89.1% higher for the year.

Virgin Australia's share price is also higher this afternoon. At the time of writing, the airline's shares are trading for $3.22, up 0.94% for the day and up 11% over the year.

The post Should Virgin, Qantas shareholders be worried about Koala Airlines entering the market? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.