What can owners of NAB shares expect in the upcoming FY23 result in November?

It's almost time for this bank to share its earnings results for FY23. What might be reported?

| More on:
a couple consider the advice from a man with documents laid out on a table and the man holding a tablet in his hand.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

An important date that owners of National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares need to know is the reporting date of the annual result. This is when shareholders get the most information about how the ASX bank share is performing and its financial trends.

NAB is scheduled to hand in its full-year result on 9 November 2023. It could make for an interesting day for NAB shares. Comments and details within the report can influence what investors think of the business for the foreseeable future.

FY23 expectations for profit

There are various estimates for what the bank might achieve in its upcoming results.

Looking at the forecast on Commsec, NAB is projected to generate earnings per share (EPS) of $2.48. That would put the NAB share price at just over 11x FY23's estimated earnings.

The broker UBS has predicted that NAB will generate net earnings of $7.74 billion in FY23, with EPS of $2.29. That would put the NAB share price at 12x FY23's estimated earnings.

UBS is cautious about "possible higher credit provision charges for NAB given its more business banking focused loan/earnings mix". The broker currently has a sell rating on the ASX bank share because of its "richer valuation to peers and overall business mix at this point in the interest rate and credit cycle."

At the time of its investment call, UBS said NAB traded at an approximate 20% premium valuation to two of the other major banks. This reflected "strong operational/financial momentum over the past few years and the market's qualitative assessment of management, and NAB's franchise strength."

However, in UBS' view, NAB is likely to be the "most exposed to a deteriorating credit cycle compared to peers". The bank also had a "weaker relative funding mix given lower retail deposit market share". The broker thinks this is negative for the net interest margin (NIM).

What dividend could owners of NAB shares get?

According to Commsec's projection, the bank could pay an annual dividend per share of $1.67. This would represent a grossed-up dividend yield of 8.4%.

With the fact that NAB has already paid a half-year dividend of 83 cents per share, the projection implies the ASX bank share could pay an FY23 final dividend of 84 cents per share. The final dividend per share would represent a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.2%.

Forecasts can change, but the current projection on Commsec is that NAB's dividend per share could be $1.68 in FY24 and $1.70 per share in FY25.

NAB share price snapshot

Since the start of 2023, NAB shares have fallen more than 3%, as we can see in the chart below. That compares to a fall of 1.7% for the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the same time period.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

Bank building in a financial district.
Bank Shares

Should you be bullish about the 2025 outlook for ASX 200 bank shares?

Can we bank on another strong year for the major ASX financial shares?

Read more »

A man looking at his laptop and thinking.
Bank Shares

Is this why the CBA share price is underperforming today?

CBA shares are back in the headlines today.

Read more »

Modern accountant woman in a light business suit in modern green office with documents and laptop.
Bank Shares

Is the wonderous 59% run in Westpac shares nearing its end?

Does the bank still have more to give or is it too good to be true?

Read more »

A company manager presents the ASX company earnings report to shareholders at an AGM.
Bank Shares

Why today is a big day for Bank of Queensland shares

It’s a big day for Bank of Queensland shareholders on Tuesday.

Read more »

A colourfully dressed young skydiver wearing heavy gold gloves smiles and gives a thumbs up as he falls through the sky.
Bank Shares

Are Westpac shares still a buy after soaring 44% this year?

This broker has a firm recommendation for Westpac shares right now...

Read more »

A man holds his hand under his chin as he concentrates on his laptop screen and reads about the ANZ share price
Bank Shares

Where could the ANZ share price go in the next 12 months? Here are the latest forecasts

Where could ANZ shares be by Black Friday 2025?

Read more »

A woman in a bright yellow jumper looks happily at her yellow piggy bank representing bank dividends and in particular the CBA dividend
Bank Shares

How the CBA share price crushed the benchmark again in November

ASX 200 investors sent CBA shares flying higher in November. Buy why?

Read more »

Nervous customer in discussions at a bank.
Bank Shares

CBA share price slips amid potential $900 million damages news

The bank is in the spotlight once more.

Read more »