Should ASX 200 investors be freaking out about the US debt ceiling?

The financial world is anxious that the world's biggest economy could self-implode.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Once again US politics is playing silly buggers, with the latest game of government debt ceiling chicken.

In that country, legislative approval is required for the federal government's borrowings to surpass the previously determined cap.

That means that every few years this limit needs to be raised so that the world's biggest economy can function. Otherwise the US government defaults on its debts and chaos would ensue.

The trouble is, every time the debt ceiling needs to be raised, political grandstanding takes over.

The Republicans, who control the legislative arm at the moment, insist on spending cuts in return for the ceiling being raised. The Democrats do not wish to cut services that the country needs.

So here we go again, with US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen reminding everyone last weekend that a deal needs to be done by 1 June.

That's only a week away. Yikes.

a man weraing a suit sits nervously at his laptop computer biting into his clenched hand with nerves, and perhaps fear.

Image source: Getty Images

Will the US default on its debts?

Understandably, this anxiety affects the confidence in US shares, bonds, and economy. But how about those Australians with S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) shares?

Firstly, despite all the puffing out of chests, many experts are tipping that an eleventh-hour deal will come through.

Ninety One strategist Sahil Mahtani is one of those who thinks the US will not default on its debts.

"We think a negotiated deal is most likely because first, unlike 2011 and 2013, deficit concerns are not in the foreground today," he said.

"Second, Republicans are less united than in the early 2010s, when their majority in the House was also much bigger."

Mahtani also suspects that president Joe Biden's administration actually wouldn't mind an excuse to cut some spending.

"The Biden administration may in fact want, sotto voce, some fiscal restraint given the current macroeconomic juncture. In 2011, unemployment was high, and inflation was low. Today it is the opposite."

Time to hunt for bargains on the ASX

Elvest portfolio manager Adrian Ezquerro told The Motley Fool that the "political brinkmanship" would resolve itself soon enough.

"We expect a deal to be eventually done, with the result being a lift in the US debt ceiling, but it may well result in elevated market volatility in the meantime."

He urged investors to take advantage of this and buy ASX shares on the cheap.

"Often these macro events, while worrisome at the time, provide good opportunities to put capital to work in high quality companies at cheaper prices," he said.

"As such, we have our watchlist ready and are well positioned to accumulate target companies if protracted debt ceiling negotiations lead to a market correction."

Motley Fool contributor Tony Yoo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Share Market News

A smiling woman at a hardware shop selects paint colours from a wall display.
Broker Notes

Wesfarmers shares: Buy, hold or sell?

A leading analyst delivers his verdict on Wesfarmers shares.

Read more »

An arrow crashes through the ground as a businessman watches on.
Share Fallers

After falling 43% in a week, are Cochlear shares now a buy?

Is this drop a warning sign?

Read more »

Businessman working and using Digital Tablet new business project finance investment at coffee cafe.
Broker Notes

Buy, hold, sell: Cochlear, CSL, and DroneShield shares

Are these hugely popular shares in the buy zone or not? Let's find out.

Read more »

Man holding out $50 and $100 notes in his hands, symbolising ex dividend.
Share Market News

How much do I need to invest in ASX shares to earn a $500 monthly passive income?

A $500 per month passive income is more achievable than you'd think.

Read more »

Man with rocket wings which have flames coming out of them.
Broker Notes

These ASX 200 shares could rise ~40% to 80%

Brokers are predicting big returns for these top shares. Here's what you need to know.

Read more »

3 children standing on podiums wearing Olympic medals.
Share Gainers

Here are the top 10 ASX 200 shares today

It was a lacklustre end to the trading week this Friday...

Read more »

Person pointing at an increasing blue graph which represents a rising share price.
Broker Notes

2 ASX 200 stocks that could rise 50%

Morgans thinks the market is undervaluing these shares.

Read more »

A financial expert or broker looks worried as he checks out a graph showing market volatility.
Technology Shares

I was going to buy these ASX tech stocks. Now, I'm not so sure

When the facts change, so should our buying...

Read more »