ASX 200 iron ore shares including Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) are slipping today on news of lower shipments and a fall in the commodity price overnight.
Meantime, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up 0.18%.
Iron ore shares are down because the value of 62% fe iron ore fell by 0.78% overnight. It now sits at US$128 per tonne.
On top of that, The Australian reports that iron ore shipments from Australia are down.
Shipments totalled 17.8 million tonnes in the week to 20 January, according to Marcura data compiled by Bloomberg. Preliminary data for the week to 27 January shows 17.9 million in shipments.
Both results are down on the $18 million recorded in the week to 13 January.
How far are ASX 200 iron ore shares dropping today?
Right now, all the big-name ASX iron ore shares are down but Rio Tinto is down the most.
The Rio Tinto share price is down 2.3% to $125.46.
Shares in fellow mining giant BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) are down 1.4% to $48.85.
Iron ore pure-play Fortescue Metals Group Limited (ASX: FMG) shares are down 0.2% to $22.29.
Mid-cap iron ore share Champion Iron Ltd (ASX: CIA) is down 0.6% to $7.34.
Why is the Rio Tinto share price falling the most?
Rio shares may also be down following news reports that the company will be picking up the tab for the search in the Western Australian outback for a radioactive tablet that fell off one of its trucks.
It was recovered yesterday in a remarkable feat, given its tiny size of just 8mm long and 6mm in diameter.
The tablet is part of an industrial gauge commonly used in the mining industry. The gauge was recently used to measure iron ore feed at Rio Tinto's Gudai-Darri mine.
In a press release, the CEO of Rio Tinto's iron ore division, Simon Trott said the company was "incredibly grateful for the hard work of everyone involved in finding the missing capsule".
Trott said:
We are taking this incident very seriously and are undertaking a full and thorough investigation into how it happened.
As part of our investigation, we will be assessing whether our processes and protocols, including the use of specialist contractors to package and transport radioactive materials, are appropriate.
The outlook for iron ore
As every investor in ASX 200 iron ore shares knows, daily stock prices tend to move in line with commodity prices. And shipment volumes will vary from week to week. So, today's price movements simply represent the swings and roundabouts of commodity-stock investing.
What's more important for iron ore shares investors is long-term trends, and news and events that will support iron ore prices, like China's reopening.
Looking ahead, top broker Goldman Sachs is forecasting a commodity price recovery in 1H 2023:
While we continue to think 1Q23 will be a tough quarter for base metals and steel due to ongoing weak European and global demand, our expectation of a China reopening in 2Q, extreme lows in global base metal inventories and ongoing supply side disruptions make us positive on a 2H commodity price recovery.
Goldman expects iron ore demand to increase in line with increased Chinese steel production. The broker was "most positive" on 62% fe and high-grade iron ore.
As we reported last month, Goldman upped its share price target for Rio Tinto by 9% to $130 per share. It raised the target on BHP shares by 12% to $48.10 and Champion Iron shares by 22% to $8.40.
