Is Transurban's (ASX:TCL) share price 18% undervalued?

Why a 'return to normal' should see Transurban's share price gain 18% from today's levels. And it could gain far more…

Bernd Struben

Author bio Bernd Struben earned his BA in economics from the University of Michigan in 1991, with post-graduate studies in environmental economics at the University of Connecticut. Over the years he’s written about and analysed the tourism industry in the Caribbean; Europe’s commercial real estate markets; and, since moving to Australia in 2010, global and Aussie share markets. Bernd studies geopolitical and macroeconomic trends, alongside sector and company specific data, to gauge what he believes could be tomorrow's best investments. In his free time, you might find Bernd at the beach with his family or working on his next science fiction novel. Areas of expertise Australian and global share markets Macroeconomic and geopolitical trends Real estate Education Economics, University of Michigan Favorite investment quote "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different." — Sir John Templeton

Published October 14, 2020 5:50 pm AEDT

The Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) share price was down 0.5% at close of trade today.

That's broadly in line with the wider market moves, which saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) fall 0.3% by the closing bell.

Still, October's been a good month for Transurban shareholders, with the share price up 6.2% so far this month. Following the massive COVID-19 driven sell-off in March, year-to-date the share price remains down 6.5%.

So why do I think the Transurban share price is undervalued by at least 18%? We'll get to that in a tick. But first…

green road sign with white up arrow representing rising atlas arteria share price — Image source: Getty Images

What does Transurban do?

Transurban is one of the world's largest toll road operators. Atop collecting toll payments from road users, the company also designs and constructs new road projects. Transurban is Australian-owned and operates in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. It also runs toll roads in Montreal, Canada and the wider Washington DC area in the United States.

Transurban first listed on the ASX in 1996.

Why the Transurban share price could go up

Less than 8 months ago, on 20 February, the Transurban share price hit an all-time closing high of $16.26 per share.

That's just over 14% above today's price of $13.93 per share. This means if things were simply to 'return to normal' the share price could gain 18%.

And traffic counts on the company's toll roads indicate that the return to normal is already well under way.

At last week's annual general meeting (AGM), the company revealed that while average daily traffic (ADT) was still down 58.6% on its Melbourne tollways for the September quarter, traffic numbers in Sydney were up 1.5%.

That's not huge. But it does indicate that once restrictions are lifted, people are prone to return to their cars. And with angst over potential infections on public transport likely to linger in Australia and North America, car travel should see a boost from people turning away from buses and trains.

Then there's the multi billions of dollars in the recovery budgets that the Australian, US, and Canadian governments have pledged for infrastructure (including roads) projects. This should also offer long term gains for Transurban's road design and construction branches.

Connecting the dots, I believe Transurban's share price could be at least 18% higher by this time next year.

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