Own Brickworks shares? Here's your half-year results preview

Is Brickworks going to post a sharp profit decline next week?

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Brickworks Limited (ASX: BKW) shares will be on watch next week.

That's because the building products company will be releasing its half-year results on Thursday 21 March.

And with the company's shares up almost 30% over the last 12 months, expectations are likely to be high.

But what exactly is the market expecting? Let's find out.

Brickworks half-year preview

Unfortunately, I don't have any half-year estimates to work with, but we can look at full-year expectations and go from there.

For example, the team at Bell Potter is forecasting a modest decline in revenue to $1,160.8 million for FY 2024.

So, with Brickworks' revenue coming in at $583.9 million for the first half of FY 2023, the market may be looking for something slightly softer than this figure next week.

Here's where it gets interesting.

Bell Potter is forecasting a huge decline in earnings in FY 2024 from Brickworks.

It has pencilled in EBITDA of $167.1 million and underlying net profit after tax of $60.3 million. This will be down 78.7% and 88.1%, respectively, year on year.

Based on this, it is quite apparent that a significant drop in first-half earnings is expected to be reported next week.

But don't panic. It's not because the company is having a nightmare year. Instead, it's largely because Brickworks benefited from significant property sales from its joint venture with Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) last year.

That segment contributed $453 million of EBITDA thanks to the sale of Oakdale East Stage 2 into the Industrial JV Trust.

In addition, the broker is expecting the company to report a non-cash value impairment for the year.

What about dividends from Brickworks shares?

The good news for shareholders is that the broker doesn't expect Brickworks' profit decline to end its long run of dividend increases. The broker is forecasting a 67 cents per share dividend in FY 2024, up from 65 cents per share a year earlier.

This is likely to mean a fully franked interim dividend of 24 cents per share is declared next week.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Brickworks and Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Brickworks. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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