Up 20% in 4 months, where's next for the CBA share price?

Have CBA shares finally hit their limits?

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The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has just seemed to go from strength to strength over the past few months.

We only have to rewind to the end of October to see CBA shares going for just $96 each. But today, those same shares are asking $115.71 at the time of writing (up 0.72% for the day so far).

Not only is that more than 20% above the price CBA was just four months ago, but it's also just a couple of dollars short of this ASX 200 bank stock's all-time high of $118.24.

So it goes without saying that it's been a great few months to own the ASX's largest bank.

But with CBA shares recording such an enthusiastic rise over such a short space of time, many investors might be wondering what could be next for this popular ASX dividend stock.

After all, these gains have pushed CBA's trailing dividend yield significantly below the other big four banks. Right now, CBA's yield of 3.93% (fully franked of course) looks distinctly un-banklike, considering ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ), for example, is offering investors 6.13% today.

What's next for the CBA share price? Goldman says sell

It may be upsetting for CBA shareholders to learn that most ASX brokers are fairly united in the view that CBA shares are currently overvalued.

How much so? Well, consider what ASX broker Goldman Sachs said earlier this month.

As my Fool colleague covered at the time, Goldman likes what it saw in CBA's latest earnings report, which we covered here. This also went down well with the market.

However, Goldman also stated that "we do not think this justifies the 55% 12-month forward PPOP [pre-provision operating profit] premium CBA is currently trading on versus peers (ex-dividend adjusted)".

Goldman pointed out that CBA shares have almost always traded at a premium to their peers. But it also noted that the average premium over the past 15 years has been around 29%, as opposed to the current 55%.

Goldman also reckons CBA's annual dividends will stay relatively flat at $4.55 per share until the end of the 2026 financial year.

That's the primary reason why Goldman has a sell rating, as well as a 12-month share price target of just $81.98 per share for CBA. If this proves accurate, investors could lose approximately 30% from the current share price over the coming 12 months.

A final caveat though. ASX brokers like Goldman have been bearish on CBA shares for a long time now. And yet this has done nothing to stop the bank from clocking new record highs, and investors from banking significant gains, in recent months.

So who knows where the CBA share price will head next.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goldman Sachs Group. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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