Why Macquarie shares could be poised for an AI windfall

Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the giant investment bank, looks set to make a lot of cash if or when AirTrunk is sold or goes through an initial public offering (IPO) process.

Macquarie is known for its prowess at investing in infrastructure and also achieving good fees for itself.

According to reporting by the Australian Financial Review, Macquarie's asset management division owns a large chunk of AirTrunk, which is a large data centre developer and owner. Macquarie invested when the business was worth $3 billion.

How much could Airtrunk be worth now?

AFR reporting suggested that AirTrunk might be worth between $13 billion to $14 billion now, according to institutional investors having a look at the company which is helping enable the growth of AI. It now has 11 data centres and 1.4 GW of capacity.

There is reportedly early interest from a number of private equity giants including Blackstone, KKR and Brookfield. These potential buyers could make sense because they have been buying other data centre operators in North America and Europe. They also have links to sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and lenders.

AirTrunk's earnings have reportedly increased by seven times since Macquarie invested, which is a good sign for the potential gains the investment bank could lock-in, which could help Macquarie shares.

Any buyer would need to keep investing in new data centres to keep up with the demand and ensure it remains the largest independent data centre operator in the Asia Pacific region.

Blackstone is reportedly an early favourite.

While an IPO is possible, it may be more likely that a new shareholder comes in and buys a 30% or 40% stake. But, if the price is right, there could be a full exit providing that financial conditions are also right.

While this will be a huge deal for Macquarie if something happens, it probably won't make or break its financial year.

Macquarie share price snapshot

Since the start of 2024, the Macquarie share price has risen 2.7%, compared to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) which is flat.