Better ASX 200 dividend buy: Origin Energy or AGL shares?

ASX 200 dividend shares deliver billions of dollars in passive income to investors every year.

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S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) dividend shares deliver billions of dollars in passive income to investors every year.

In fact, in just the first three months of 2023, ASX shares (including smaller companies outside of the ASX 200) paid out a whopping US$18.7 billion in dividends.

That's according to the latest global report, from Janus Henderson.

When it comes to investing in ASX 200 dividend shares for annual passive income, it's a good idea to invest across a number of different companies involved in a variety of sectors.

Which brings us to these two energy providers.

Both of Australia's largest energy providers Origin Energy Ltd (ASX: ORG) and AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) have made two annual payouts over the past few years.

So, which ASX 200 dividend share is the better one to buy now?

Which ASX 200 dividend share to buy?

When I'm running my slide rule over stocks that will drop regular passive income into my bank account, I prefer companies that have been growing their dividends, as well as making at least two payouts a year. The longer that track record the better.

Atop growing the payouts, I also have a rather obvious preference for ASX 200 dividend shares offering a higher yield.

Together with these factors, I'll take into account their share price performance and their latest financials.

So, let's run the figures for these two stocks.

First up, AGL shares

AGL ticks the box for a solid track record of making two annual payouts.

Unfortunately, those dividends have been shrinking since 2019.

The ASX 200 energy stock paid out a final dividend of 34 cents per share, unfranked, in September 2021 and an interim dividend of 16 cents per share in March 2022 for a full-year payout of 50 cents per share.

Over the past 12 months, AGL paid a final dividend of 10 cents per share in September 2022 and an interim dividend of 8 cents per share in March for a full-year payout of 18 cents per share.

That's a 64% year on year fall in passive income per share.

In its H1 FY23 results, AGL reported a 16% year on year decline in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), which came in at $604 million.

The AGL share price is up 8% over the past 12 months.

Versus Origin shares

Running the same metrics, the Origin share price is up 23% over the past 12 months. And underlying EBITDA for H1 FY23 came in at $1.6 billion, down 4% year on year.

Origin also ticks the box for making two payouts (since 2019), and this ASX 200 dividend share has seen those payouts grow year on year.

Over the past 12 months Origin has paid out 33 cents per share in partly franked dividends. That's up 65% from the 20 cents per share paid out over the prior 12 month period.

At the current share price, Origin trades on a trailing yield of 3.9%, 88% franked.

That compares to a trailing yield of 1.9%, unfranked, for AGL shares.

With Origin growing its dividends year on year, paying a higher yield than AGL (and with franking credits), and seeing its share price strongly outperform, this is the ASX 200 dividend share I'd buy.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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