Rio Tinto shares: Buy, hold or fold in February?

ASX 200 investors who bought Rio Tinto shares on 1 November have seen the miner's stock soar by more than 37%.

Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares are up 1.12% in lunchtime trade, going for $124.32 apiece.

That intraday lift sees shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) miner up 7% so far in 2023.

Atop the potential for share price gains, Rio Tinto also pays a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 7.7%.

Of course, there are no guarantees that Rio Tinto will deliver that same kind of passive income in the year ahead. Nor that its share price will keep marching higher.

So what's an ASX 200 investor to do?

A young investor working on his ASX shares portfolio on his laptop.

Image source: Getty Images

Buy, hold or fold?

In the fold camp, we have Argonaut analyst Harrison Massey (courtesy of The Bull).

Among his concerns, Massey cites the massive 39% leap in the Rio Tinto share price over the past three months of trading.

"The share price of this global miner has risen from $90.49 on November 1, 2022 to trade at $125.57 on February 2, 2023," he said.

The miner's performance is also highly dependent on the price of iron ore and copper. Both industrial metals have seen big price lifts since early November. But demand could slide should global recession fears come to fruition.

"Despite the company typically paying attractive dividends, it may be prudent for investors to consider taking a profit around these levels," Massey said. "Ongoing concerns about a global economic slowdown may impact iron ore spot prices in the medium term."

But not everyone believes Rio Tinto shares are ones to fold in February.

Included in that buy camp are the analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Following on from the ASX 200 miner's quarterly update in January, the broker retained its buy rating and increased its price target for Rio Tinto to $134.40 per share. That's some 8% above the current share price.

Among reasons to be bullish on the stock, Goldman's analysts cited the miner's record iron ore production and its guidance for a 15% increase in mined copper production for the full year.

How have Rio Tinto shares performed longer-term?

As you can see in the chart below, thanks to the strong performance since early November, Rio Tinto shares are up 8% over the past 12 months.

Investors who bought shares five years ago will be sitting on gains of 62%.

And those figures don't include dividends.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Two workers on a tablet at a mine site, with mining machinery behind them.
Resources Shares

Fortescue vs BHP: Which ASX miner is better for passive income in October?

Comparing Fortescue vs BHP shares for passive income—who pays the bigger franked dividend, and which miner I'd buy today for…

Read more »

Female miner standing smiling in a mine.
Broker Notes

3 ASX mining shares with 43% to 322% upside ahead: brokers

The miners remain on an upward trajectory despite the broader market weakening in 2026.

Read more »

Two workers on a tablet at a mine site, with mining machinery behind them.
Resources Shares

Is BHP the best ASX mining share to buy for the next 5 years?

I look at how copper, iron ore, and potash could reshape the mining giant over the next five years.

Read more »

Mining equipment and red iron ore against blue sky.
Resources Shares

Fortescue posts September 2026 quarterly earnings update

Fortescue iron ore shipments fell 6% in Q1 2027, with debt up as the miner paid its final dividend and…

Read more »

Gold bars on top of coins.
Resources Shares

Ramelius Resources September quarter earnings: Gold production update and outlook

Ramelius Resources lifted gold output and cash for the September quarter as it advances major projects and targets growth through…

Read more »

Woman with gold nuggets on her hand.
Resources Shares

West African Resources delivers record Q3 gold output, on track for 2026 targets

West African Resources delivered record group gold production in Q3 2026 and remains on track for annual guidance.

Read more »

Two people wearing hard hats talking with each other at a mine site, with two workers in the background.
Resources Shares

Fortescue vs PLS Group: Which ASX mining share is the better buy?

Which blue chip miner offers more upside—Fortescue or PLS Group? I dig into the numbers, dividends, and value to find…

Read more »

Stacked gold bricks.
Resources Shares

Regis Resources share price steady after Q1 production update

Regis Resources posts steady September quarter gold production and a strong cash position, with full results coming soon.

Read more »