Goldman Sachs names the only ASX lithium share to buy today

There are slim pickings in the lithium industry right now according to Goldman Sachs…

Key points
  • Lithium shares have been on fire this year thanks to sky high prices of the battery making ingredient
  • However, Goldman believes lithium prices will fall materially in 2024
  • As a result, it believes there's only one pure play ASX lithium share to buy now

The Allkem Ltd (ASX: AKE) share price has been a strong performer over the last 12 months.

As you can see below, the ASX lithium share has gained over 50% since this time last year.

A white EV car and an electric vehicle pump with green highlighted swirls representing ASX lithium shares

Image source: Getty Images

Can this ASX lithium share keep rising?

According to a note out of Goldman Sachs, its analysts have been looking at the Australian lithium industry and believe Allkem is the only pure play ASX lithium share to buy right now.

A note released this morning reveals that the broker has initiated coverage on Allkem with a buy rating and $15.20 price target.

Based on the current Allkem share price, this implies potential upside of 10% for investors.

What did the broker say?

As I covered here earlier, Goldman Sachs believes that lithium prices will start to decline materially during the second half of 2023.

It expects spodumene (6% grade) prices to go from an average of US$4,330 a tonne in 2023 to just US$800 a tonne in 2024. This is expected to be driven by lithium production growing larger than demand.

In light of this, the broker believes investors should be very selective when it comes to buying ASX lithium shares. It commented:

With the pricing backdrop, we prefer low cost producers with quality resources to underpin growth optionality and vertical integration over developers.

Based on this, Goldman believes that Allkem is the only pure play ASX lithium share to buy right now. Particularly given its material production growth plans and attractive valuation. It adds:

With optionality across the Americas and Australia on the largest lithium resource in our coverage growing equity LCE production >4x by FY27E, and at a discount to peers at 1.02x NAV (peer average 1.3x), Allkem is our preferred lithium exposure. We initiate with a Buy rating and a 12-month PT of A$15.2/sh, implying 9% upside, where we see near-term Argentinian FX risk as overdone on the in-country reinvestment profile.

The broker also has a buy rating on mining and mining services company Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) with a $94.00 price target. This is largely due to its lithium exposure, which is expected to make up a large proportion of its earnings in FY 2023.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Allkem. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Materials Shares

A woman sits in a cafe wearing a polka dotted shirt and holding a latte in one hand while reading something on a laptop that is sitting on the table in front of her
Materials Shares

Orora FY26 earnings: Cans strong, Glass under pressure

Orora's FY26 results show strength in Cans but ongoing challenges for Glass, including a substantial non-cash impairment.

Read more »

Three people at a building site discussing a plan whilst eating.
Materials Shares

Fletcher Building posts higher volumes in Q1 FY27, residential lags

Fletcher Building posted Q1 FY27 sales volume growth in several key business units, though residential activity stayed challenging.

Read more »

A bland looking man in a brown suit opens his jacket to reveal a red and gold superhero dollar symbol on his chest.
Materials Shares

2 ASX lithium shares to buy with 38% to 120% upside

Bell Potter sees potential for these shares to rise strongly over the next 12 months.

Read more »

Female miner in hard hat and safety vest on laptop with mining drill in background.
Materials Shares

Why are Lynas Rare Earths shares crashing 6% today?

Are Lynas Rare Earths shares a buy, sell, or hold now?

Read more »

Businessman planning and analysing investment data.
Materials Shares

Forget PLS, this ASX lithium stock could rise 80%

Is this lithium miner about to roar higher? Here's what Bell Potter is predicting.

Read more »

Couple using their digital tablet together.
Materials Shares

Orica updates on North American supply and land sales

Orica secures key North American supply and updates on land sales, supporting future growth and shareholder value.

Read more »

Man analysing data on his laptop.
Materials Shares

Forget BHP and buy this ASX copper stock

Bell Potter thinks there could be big returns on offer from this stock.

Read more »

A brightly coloured graphic with a silver square showing the abbreviation Li and the word Lithium to represent lithium ASX shares such as Core Lithium with small coloured battery graphics surrounding
Materials Shares

Why are Core Lithium shares crashing 8% on Thursday?

A busy morning of announcements has investors taking notice.

Read more »