Despite all the recent noise, is it business as usual for AGL shares?

We check what may be ahead for the energy giant leading up to its 'strategy day' later this month.

| More on:
A male electricity worker in hard hat and high visibility vest stands underneath large electricity generation towers as he holds a laptop computer and gazes up at the high voltage wires overhead.

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • The AGL share price has faltered in the last month of trade
  • Investors have sold positions en masse as the energy player deals with a series of headwinds
  • In the last 12 months, AGL shares are still up more than 7%

The AGL Energy Ltd (ASX: AGL) share price has been shaky the last few months as investors unload their positions en masse.

Shares in the energy giant are now down 19% over the past month of trade and about 25% lower than the $8.58 apiece they were fetching on 10 August.

Spurring the plunge has been a series of unfortunate events for the energy retailer. Most recently, the AGL's outgoing CEO Graeme Hunt is set to part ways with the company at the end of this month.

If it's any consolation, AGL will hold its strategy day later this month, where it will reveal the findings of its strategic review.

No strategic changes seen

Despite the purported interest around AGL's strategy day, analysts at Macquarie aren't sharing the excitement.

The broker reckons it's unlikely to see any new major strategic changes as part of the energy giant's ongoing review.

In previous times, it was AGL's dividend that was attractive to investors but Macquarie now believes AGL will use its large FY22 profit to fulfil different mandates.

Notably, Macquaries said there's "a need for debt reduction, funding of provisions and re-investment in batteries and the energy hubs", according to a note cited by The Australian.

Retaining cash instead of increasing the dividend would "address AGL's balance sheet debt and provide the capital to co-invest in the development cities," it added.

What this means for AGL shares, we will have to see, but no change might mean no change to the share price as well.

Also, for what it's worth, AGL is trading at relatively low multiples right now.

It currently trades on a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 5.2 times, giving investors an earnings yield of more than 19% at its current price.

That sits well below the Global Industry Standard Classification median for the Utilities Sector of 14.4 times. Meanwhile, AGL also generated a 14% return on equity (ROE) last year and trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.7 times.

That means our ROE as investors is 20% with the share trading at that multiple.

Hence, whilst Macquarie sees no strategic change ahead, the question still remains if there's to be a change in the AGL share price.

Motley Fool contributor Zach Bristow has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Macquarie Group Limited. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Energy Shares

A young boy sits on his father's shoulders as they flex their muscles at sunrise on a beach
Energy Shares

1 ASX penny stock I'd buy now while it's only 5 cents

I think this ASX penny stock has outsized growth potential.

Read more »

A woman in jeans and a casual jumper leans on her car and looks seriously at her mobile phone while her vehicle is charged at an electic vehicle recharging station.
Energy Shares

This ASX 200 energy giant just signed an EV charging station deal with Stockland

Investors are feeling electrified by this deal.

Read more »

Smiling woman holding Australian dollar notes in each hand, symbolising dividends.
Dividend Investing

2 ASX passive income shares paying 8% and 13% yields

I think both these high yielding ASX dividend stocks offer long-term passive income potential.

Read more »

A coal miner wearing a red hard hat holds a piece of coal up and gives the thumbs up sign in his other hand
Energy Shares

Whitehaven share price up 20% in 5 weeks. Should you buy?

Are you missing the boat amid the rest of the market re-rating this ASX coal share?

Read more »

Woman refuelling the gas tank at fuel pump, symbolising the Ampol share price.
Energy Shares

What a US$100 oil price would mean for ASX shares and petrol prices

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver explains the impact on petrol prices.

Read more »

nextdc share price
Energy Shares

The surprising reason why Santos shares could benefit from data centres

One fund manager is bullish about Santos for an unexpected reason.

Read more »

Worker inspecting oil and gas pipeline.
Energy Shares

Own Woodside shares? Here's why tomorrow is shaping up to be a big day

Why is Wednesday so important for Woodside shareholders?

Read more »

A female coal miner wearing a white hardhat and orange high-vis vest holds a lump of coal and smiles as the Whitehaven Coal share price rises today
Dividend Investing

Invest $10,000 in New Hope shares and get $1,006 in passive income

Many ASX investors buy New Hope shares for their high yielding, fully franked dividends.

Read more »