Here’s what will impact the Bitcoin price in July: expert

Cryptos are likely to rise or fall in line with other risk assets in the month ahead.

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Key points

  • The Bitcoin price dropped 16% in June 
  • Crypto's prices will be influenced by the US Fed’s rate decision in July 
  • Bitcoin’s current pull back from all-time highs remains within historic ranges 

The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price kicked off June trading for US$31,705, give or take a few hundred dollars depending on your time zone. That was also close to the monthly high.

Over the past month the world’s top crypto by market cap traded as high as US$32,249 and as low as US$17,709, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Valued at US$20,280 last night, the Bitcoin price has lost some 16% over the month.

With the calendar pages ready to be turned on June, what can crypto investors expect in July?

What’s ahead for the Bitcoin price in July?

Aside from stablecoins (and ignoring the recent Terra USD stablecoin meltdown), most every top-100 crypto has come under pressure in recent months.

And so long as the forces behind those pressures remain, any meteoric rise in the Bitcoin price looks dim.

According to eToro’s market analyst and crypto expert Simon Peters:

Crypto markets are very sensitive to US markets, in particular to monetary policy decisions from the Fed to combat rising inflation. The raising of interest rates and rising bond yields have affected US equity valuations and, by extension, crypto markets in recent months.

Potentially aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve, which hiked rates by 0.75% earlier in June, has seen the tech-heavy Nasdaq fall 29% this calendar year. If we see another outsized rate hike from the Fed in July, it could put further pressure on the Bitcoin price and risk assets more broadly.

Atop rate concerns, Peters added, “Increasing recession risks, poor earnings and forward guidance from companies could further affect stock market prices. Given the recent correlations, crypto prices could also be affected.”

An eye on the long-term

While crypto investors who bought at higher prices will be feeling some pain, Peters pointed out that the pullback in the Bitcoin price remains well within historic ranges. “Bitcoin saw a pull back of around 84% from its highs in December 2017 to the low in December 2018.”

Bitcoin is currently down just over 70% from its 10 November all-time highs.

For long-term crypto investors, Peters added, “What is critical here is that any long-term investment case made for the crypto asset should remain when the underlying ideas are considered and historic price trends are factored in.”

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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