Why this investment guru forecasts Bitcoin crashing to US$15,000

Share markets can be volatile, but generally far less so than the crypto space.

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The Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price is up 4.8% over the past 24 hours. One Bitcoin is currently worth US$32,076 (AU$43,346).

The digital token likely has Elon Musk to thank for some of the rebound.

The influential Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) founder, appearing on a panel discussion with Cathie Wood, and Jack Dorsey, said he’d invested more in Bitcoin than other cryptos. And he noted Tesla will likely begin accepting it as payment again once 50% of the power used to mine it comes from renewable sources.

With the past 24 hour’s performance, the year-to-date gains for the world’s biggest crypto are back up to 10.4%. Though it’s worth noting that the value is still less than half of where it stood at April’s peak levels.

Same gains…better sleep

10.4%, incidentally, is the precise year-to-date gain currently posted by the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO). Gains that share investors using an ASX 200 tracking exchange traded fund (ETF) could have made while enduring a heck lot less of volatility than crypto investors holding Bitcoin have.

While today’s rebound will come as welcome news to these crypto investors, what follows may cause some restless nights.

Fair warning.

Bitcoin to crash to US$15,000?

Scott Minerd is the chief investment officer of global asset management and investment advisory Guggenheim Investments, which oversees some US$245 billion (AU$331 billion) in total assets.

And Minerd is decidedly bearish on his outlook for Bitcoin.

Minerd forecasts that the token will lose more than half its current value, he told Bloomberg Television yesterday (overnight Aussie time). He expects “something in the neighbourhood of $15,000”, adding that “a lot of this stuff is just junk”.

According to Minerd:

I think there’s still more air to come out. The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go… When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon.

Long-term, Minerd believes that Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) will be a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin. The Ethereum price, by the way, is up 6.1% over the past 24 hours and has gained 168% year-to-date, according to data from CoinDesk.

The investing guru – who’s also bearish on the short-term outlook for shares in September and October – speculated that Bitcoin could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks”.

If Minerd’s got this one right, then Tesla stands to lose a fortune on its US$1.5 billion Bitcoin investment.

According to an estimate published by Fortune, Tesla likely paid around US$34,700 per token at the time. Should it fall to US$15,000, the company could be out some US$852 million on its crypto venture.

Caveat emptor!

Should you invest $1,000 in Bitcoin right now?

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The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. owns shares of and has recommended Bitcoin and Tesla. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has recommended Ethereum. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Bruce Jackson.

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