Bionic ear maker Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) has advanced 0.7% to $88.57 in late afternoon trade. This could just be the time to take profit.
That's the view of Morgan Stanley, which is warning investors to stand clear of the stock as shares in Cochlear are poised to fall in absolute terms over the next 60 days.
The bearish call comes after the stock's 22% rally over the past six months with Cochlear failing twice to break above $93 a share this calendar year.
Technical analysts who read charts to ascertain future share price performance would see this as an ominous sign, but even those who look at fundamental measures (such as earnings growth and multiples) would be feeling squeamish with the stock trading on a consensus price-earnings (P/E) forecast of 32.3 times for the current financial year and 27.5 times for 2015-16.
I am not saying that Cochlear isn't worth its premium to the market, but its half-year result has left analysts feeling underwhelmed with the company losing market share.
Further, this market share loss is expected to get worse and this is why investors should be wary about paying a premium for the stock.
Of the 14 analysts polled on Reuters, only one thinks the stock is worthy of a "buy" rating and Morgan Stanley thinks earnings downgrades from other brokers are in the wings.
Coincidently, sleep disorder treatment company ResMed Inc. (CHESS) (ASX: RMD) has also left a bad taste in the mouths of investors following its latest earnings result.
Its 1.1% increase in net profit to $91 million in the March quarter has come in under market expectations as gross margins compressed by a stunning 272 basis points (2.72 of a percentage point).
ResMed crashed 9.7% to $8.46 on Friday following the earnings release and is trading flat ahead of the close.
But Macquarie thinks shareholders should use today's stability as a profit taking opportunity and has downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy".
I have little doubt that at some stage these great Australian innovators will be a "buy" but I want to see more water pass under their bridges before taking a plunge.
